Who will vote November 8th?

by Tom Campbell, Executive Producer and Moderator, NC SPIN, June 24, 2016.

Before the all-but-certain nasty political rhetoric dominates the airways it might be instructive to use this “quieter” time to analyze the North Carolina electorate and look at who might vote. Catawba College Political Science Professor, Dr. Michael Bitzer, along with State Board of Elections statistics help provide some data to instruct us.

There are 6.597 million voters in our state. Females outnumber males by 53.4 to 45 percent. White voters account for 70.26 percent of the electorate, while Blacks are 26.32 percent. 40 percent are registered as Democrats, 30 percent as Republicans and 29 percent proclaim themselves Unaffiliated. 34 percent are Baby Boomers between the ages of 51 and 71. Millennials (those under 35) constitute the second largest group at 29 percent, while voters between 36 and 50 years of age (Generation X) account for 25 percent and those over age 71 make up 12 percent of registered voters. 19 urban counties contain 54 percent of all registered voters, with Wake and Mecklenburg together accounting for 20 percent of all voters.

This data, along with some voting trends, leads to some conclusions. Statewide campaigns will focus most of their attention and ad money where the most voters live, in the urban and suburban counties. Democrats do better in larger cities, with larger numbers of younger voters, while Republicans concentrate on the burbs and rural areas. The groups that vote most faithfully are the Boomers and those over 71. Women lean toward voting Democratic while White men favor Republicans. Blacks are almost unanimous in selecting Democrats.

The unanswered question is who will actually turn out November 8^th. Since 1980, our state has averaged 65 percent turnout in presidential election years, with lows of 59 percent in both 1996 and 2000, and highs of 68 percent in 2012 and 70 percent in 2008, the Obama elections.

Voter turnout depends, to a great extent on passion, and Donald Trump has certainly generated the most, both positive and negative. Republicans, especially the traditional GOP mainstream and, to a lesser extent, Democrats are concerned about their presidential nominees. Many voters proclaim they don’t like either Trump or Clinton and may either stay home or just vote in down-ballot contests. North Carolina will not be a battleground state, with Clinton and Trump focusing most of their time and dollars to key states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania.

We will be a battleground for the U.S. Senate race. Democrats know that if they stand a chance of recapturing control of the Senate they must win here, so expect a bloody campaign and major TV dollars to be spent. Three other statewide races are more likely to motivate voters, namely the gubernatorial, state treasurer’s and attorney general’s contests, but we question whether any of these are sufficiently exciting to motive large voter turnouts.

Expect the angry white males to vote in force to support Trump. Blacks and Millennials spurred the record turnouts in 2008 and 2012, but it is questionable whether either group will be highly motivated to vote this year.

There is much at stake and every vote counts in these key races but we strongly suspect we won’t be besting our average turnout. We will be watching with you to see who exercises their right to vote.