Thom Tillis doesn't stand a chance
Published November 21, 2024
Thom Tillis’s political career has been built upon sheer serendipity. Hobbling into his first election with a severely battered image, he reaped the electoral windfall of an imaginary Ebola epidemic to upset Democrat Kay Hagan. He won reelection because his opponent was a cad. For the last ten years, the fates have compensated this unimpressive man for his complete lack of political talent.
It may be that Tillis’s best—or perhaps even only—hope to remain in the US Senate after 2026 will be for this long string of fortunate events to continue. That’s because he will face a primary from Mark Robinson or another MAGA fire-eater that the lackluster incumbent has minimal chance of surviving. Republican voters, always unsatisfied with Tillis, will have their first real chance to eject the man from office. In a Republican primary, Tillis won’t stand a chance.
Thom Tillis has done little but feed his party’s frustration ever since he lucked into a senate seat ten years ago. He has often feinted in moderate directions despite the GOP’s insistence upon strict ideological rigor. These heterodoxies include support for gun control, a vote for the Biden infrastructure law, and occasional expressions of ambivalence towards the GOP’s God-Emperor. But no issue has rendered Tillis as toxic to Republicans as illegal immigration.
In the last nine years, the Republican Party has transformed from a limited-government conservative party to a Trumpian cult organized around xenophobia. As blogger Kevin Drum wrote, Republican voters are essentially single-issue voters on immigration. The GOP’s signature attack on Joe Biden was to condemn his (often hapless) border policy as a world-historical failure. Meanwhile, Tillis has always been one of the more liberal Republicans on the immigration issue. He has broached the possibility of a “conservative amnesty” for young illegal immigrants and worked with Senate Republicans to liberalize immigration laws. This deviance has earned him fierce contempt from GOP voters.
Tillis’s long list of deviations from GOP dogma would have made him deeply vulnerable to a primary challenge even before Trump transformed the party. But the Trump era has seen a bloodbath of incumbent primary losses unlike anything that took place in the Tea Party era, which seemed extremely tumultuous at the time. MAGA’s drive to purge heretics from the Church of Trump next will arrive at Tillis’s suburban doorstep. And his effort to get Republican voters to discount his “soft” positioning on immigrants will almost certainly be futile.
That’s in part because the suburban Republicans Tillis could have looked to save his political career have now left the party. In Tillis’s former stronghold of northern Mecklenburg County, Democrats have taken over local government. Huntersville, which he claims is his hometown, has an entirely Democratic city council, and a Democrat recently won Tillis’s old seat in the General Assembly. These types of voters—once abundant in the suburbs of Charlotte, Raleigh, and Triad—have been replaced by thousands of working-class whites who vote on populist issues like immigration and the anti-trans crusade.
Enter Mark Robinson. Even after the Large Fellow From Greensboro imploded, older voters, rural voters, and non-college-educated whites stood by this vicious demagogue. These are exactly the people who will be voting in the Republican primary—and who detest establishment conservatives like Thom Tillis. Mark Robinson will not be a US Senator. But after 2026, neither will Thom Tillis.
It may be that Tillis’s best—or perhaps even only—hope to remain in the US Senate after 2026 will be for this long string of fortunate events to continue. That’s because he will face a primary from Mark Robinson or another MAGA fire-eater that the lackluster incumbent has minimal chance of surviving. Republican voters, always unsatisfied with Tillis, will have their first real chance to eject the man from office. In a Republican primary, Tillis won’t stand a chance.
Thom Tillis has done little but feed his party’s frustration ever since he lucked into a senate seat ten years ago. He has often feinted in moderate directions despite the GOP’s insistence upon strict ideological rigor. These heterodoxies include support for gun control, a vote for the Biden infrastructure law, and occasional expressions of ambivalence towards the GOP’s God-Emperor. But no issue has rendered Tillis as toxic to Republicans as illegal immigration.
In the last nine years, the Republican Party has transformed from a limited-government conservative party to a Trumpian cult organized around xenophobia. As blogger Kevin Drum wrote, Republican voters are essentially single-issue voters on immigration. The GOP’s signature attack on Joe Biden was to condemn his (often hapless) border policy as a world-historical failure. Meanwhile, Tillis has always been one of the more liberal Republicans on the immigration issue. He has broached the possibility of a “conservative amnesty” for young illegal immigrants and worked with Senate Republicans to liberalize immigration laws. This deviance has earned him fierce contempt from GOP voters.
Tillis’s long list of deviations from GOP dogma would have made him deeply vulnerable to a primary challenge even before Trump transformed the party. But the Trump era has seen a bloodbath of incumbent primary losses unlike anything that took place in the Tea Party era, which seemed extremely tumultuous at the time. MAGA’s drive to purge heretics from the Church of Trump next will arrive at Tillis’s suburban doorstep. And his effort to get Republican voters to discount his “soft” positioning on immigrants will almost certainly be futile.
That’s in part because the suburban Republicans Tillis could have looked to save his political career have now left the party. In Tillis’s former stronghold of northern Mecklenburg County, Democrats have taken over local government. Huntersville, which he claims is his hometown, has an entirely Democratic city council, and a Democrat recently won Tillis’s old seat in the General Assembly. These types of voters—once abundant in the suburbs of Charlotte, Raleigh, and Triad—have been replaced by thousands of working-class whites who vote on populist issues like immigration and the anti-trans crusade.
Enter Mark Robinson. Even after the Large Fellow From Greensboro imploded, older voters, rural voters, and non-college-educated whites stood by this vicious demagogue. These are exactly the people who will be voting in the Republican primary—and who detest establishment conservatives like Thom Tillis. Mark Robinson will not be a US Senator. But after 2026, neither will Thom Tillis.
Alexander H. Jones is a Policy Analyst with Carolina Forward. He lives in Carrboro. Have feedback? Reach him at alex@carolinaforward.org.
