Stop blaming trans people for the 2024 election
Published 11:21 a.m. Thursday
Democrats’ narrow defeat at the hands of Donald Trump has inspired a fulsome blame game. The party has debated who, exactly, should receive the most opprobrium for returning our thuggish, utterly unfit president to the White House. Many of the targets do deserve to be reproached. The prime scapegoat, however, has been the transgender community. Although some of the claims of the trans movement contributed to Kamala Harris’s defeat, the stampede of criticism these vulnerable people have faced represents a betrayal of American progressivism.
Many Democrats quickly concluded that transgender rights had been a devastating liability for Kamala Harris. The infamous “Kamala is for they/them” ad became iconic as an example of how gender identity had alienated working-class men from Harris and other Democrats. After the election, Representative Seth Moulton let little time pass by before joining with conservatives like Rep. Nancy Mace in calling for the expulsion of trans women from women’s sports. The critique of “gender ideology,” as Ron DeSantis would call it, gained so much momentum that the culpability of trans activists for Trump’s appalling victory has almost become conventional wisdom.
Trans people were a convenient target. Over the last four years, the religious right has been remarkably effective in making women’s sports and gender-affirming care a strong set of issues for social conservatives. Trans people, representing only 0.6% of the population, were the only people with material interests at stake in these debates. The rest of the public had the privilege of seeing these issues as symbolic manifestations of woke extremism. Polling shows that Republican messaging of transgender rights has won over most of the electorate. It seemed intuitive—and also relatively cost-free—to blame the trans movement for the Democratic Party’s weak political position.
The public’s skepticism of teen transitioning and the participation of trans women in women’s sports undoubtedly cost Harris some support. But the Democratic Party had far more significant failures that led to Donald Trump’s victory. Foremost among these was the hubris of President Joe Biden. Biden infuriated American voters by staying in the race years after much of the country had concluded that he was not healthy enough to serve a second term. By the time he finally withdrew from the race, it was too late for Harris to salvage things even despite the fact that she ran a solid campaign. Harris’s own refusal to repudiate any part of the administration’s record also played a damning role in her defeat.
The primary blame for Donald Trump’s victory should fall upon top Democratic politicians. That’s the most plausible explanation for his win, and it reveals the anti-trans backlash to be not only morally wrong but politically expedient. The climate trans people face in America has changed dramatically since the 2010s. When North Carolina Republicans initiated the campaign of terror against trans people by passing HB2, the trans community received a broad outpouring of sympathy from the nation (and indeed the entire world). Now, that campaign of terror has spread across nearly every red state and infected the White House with Trump’s executive orders requiring the government only to recognize natal birth sex and banning Medicaid coverage for gender-affirming care. These people are increasingly friendless—yet too many Democrats have decided transgender rights are a losing issue that should be dropped like a rock.
Joe Biden spoke of “restoring the soul of this nation.” Perhaps Democrats need to think about “restoring the soul of their party.” The Democrats lost this election because of political and policy failures by the most powerful people in Democratic politics. Trans people’s unpopularity did not cause 9% inflation or a chaotic southern border. Transgender issues were only one part of the party’s profound alienation from working-class Americans, and focusing so much ire on this small and increasingly hated minority is an exercise in scapegoating that does a great political party a grave disservice.
Many Democrats quickly concluded that transgender rights had been a devastating liability for Kamala Harris. The infamous “Kamala is for they/them” ad became iconic as an example of how gender identity had alienated working-class men from Harris and other Democrats. After the election, Representative Seth Moulton let little time pass by before joining with conservatives like Rep. Nancy Mace in calling for the expulsion of trans women from women’s sports. The critique of “gender ideology,” as Ron DeSantis would call it, gained so much momentum that the culpability of trans activists for Trump’s appalling victory has almost become conventional wisdom.
Trans people were a convenient target. Over the last four years, the religious right has been remarkably effective in making women’s sports and gender-affirming care a strong set of issues for social conservatives. Trans people, representing only 0.6% of the population, were the only people with material interests at stake in these debates. The rest of the public had the privilege of seeing these issues as symbolic manifestations of woke extremism. Polling shows that Republican messaging of transgender rights has won over most of the electorate. It seemed intuitive—and also relatively cost-free—to blame the trans movement for the Democratic Party’s weak political position.
The public’s skepticism of teen transitioning and the participation of trans women in women’s sports undoubtedly cost Harris some support. But the Democratic Party had far more significant failures that led to Donald Trump’s victory. Foremost among these was the hubris of President Joe Biden. Biden infuriated American voters by staying in the race years after much of the country had concluded that he was not healthy enough to serve a second term. By the time he finally withdrew from the race, it was too late for Harris to salvage things even despite the fact that she ran a solid campaign. Harris’s own refusal to repudiate any part of the administration’s record also played a damning role in her defeat.
The primary blame for Donald Trump’s victory should fall upon top Democratic politicians. That’s the most plausible explanation for his win, and it reveals the anti-trans backlash to be not only morally wrong but politically expedient. The climate trans people face in America has changed dramatically since the 2010s. When North Carolina Republicans initiated the campaign of terror against trans people by passing HB2, the trans community received a broad outpouring of sympathy from the nation (and indeed the entire world). Now, that campaign of terror has spread across nearly every red state and infected the White House with Trump’s executive orders requiring the government only to recognize natal birth sex and banning Medicaid coverage for gender-affirming care. These people are increasingly friendless—yet too many Democrats have decided transgender rights are a losing issue that should be dropped like a rock.
Joe Biden spoke of “restoring the soul of this nation.” Perhaps Democrats need to think about “restoring the soul of their party.” The Democrats lost this election because of political and policy failures by the most powerful people in Democratic politics. Trans people’s unpopularity did not cause 9% inflation or a chaotic southern border. Transgender issues were only one part of the party’s profound alienation from working-class Americans, and focusing so much ire on this small and increasingly hated minority is an exercise in scapegoating that does a great political party a grave disservice.
Alexander H. Jones is a Policy Analyst with Carolina Forward. He lives in Carrboro. Have feedback? Reach him at alex@carolinaforward.org.
