Stein vetoes, Democrats’ response could help shape NC policy

A new year with a new resident in North Carolina’s Executive Mansion produces plenty of questions about the future course of state public policy.

Among the most interesting: How will new Gov. Josh Stein use his veto stamp? How will legislative Democrats respond to a veto from the new chief executive?

Outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper vetoed 104 bills, an average of 13 a year during his two terms in office. For context, the previous four North Carolina governors vetoed a total of 35  bills in 20 years.

Yes, Cooper was the only North Carolina governor with veto power to spend his entire tenure working with a legislature controlled by the opposing major political party. Nineteen of the 35 pre-Cooper vetoes can be traced to 2011-12, when a newly empowered Republican legislature clashed with Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue. Perdue had issued just one veto during her previous two years in office, when fellow Democrats ran the House and Senate.

Like Perdue in her final two years and Cooper throughout his eight-year tenure, Stein faces a Republican legislative majority. He might stock up on ink for his veto stamp. Or he could decide to use the veto more judiciously — saving it for bills that clearly divide Democrats and Republicans philosophically. Stein could choose to work more closely with legislators to reach bipartisan compromise and avoid veto showdowns.

Stein’s approach could depend on both Republican and Democratic legislators.

During the first two years of Cooper’s first term in 2017-18, Republicans held veto-proof supermajorities with more than 60% of the seats in both the House and Senate. The 2018 election then broke those supermajorities.

Shifting numbers of Democrats and Republicans in the two legislative chambers made a tangible difference. While the General Assembly voted to override 23 of Cooper’s 28 vetoes during his first two years in office, he posted a streak of 47 consecutive successful vetoes from 2019 through 2022.

In the 2022 election, Republicans fell one seat short in the state House of regaining a full supermajority. House leaders predicted that a “working” supermajority with Democratic help would guarantee success for specific pieces of legislation. Then Rep. Tricia Cotham made that prediction moot by switching parties early in 2023. With Cotham voting consistently alongside Republicans, legislators voted to override all 29 Cooper vetoes during his final two years in office.

Now Republican legislative leaders see a familiar scenario at the start of the 2025 legislative session. They fall one seat short in the House of securing a full veto-proof supermajority. Barring another Democratic Party defection, GOP leaders must rely on a “working” supermajority to overcome a Stein veto.

It’s not clear at this point which Democratic legislators would prove willing to vote against the new governor’s interests.

By my count, individual Democrats in the General Assembly had 623 opportunities during the Cooper years to cast a veto override vote after initially voting “yes” on a bill. They stuck by their initial vote 113 times. That’s about 18%. (On seven occasions, a Democrat voted “no” before the bill reached Cooper and “yes” to override his veto.)

Democrats cast just 14 of those 113 override votes during the four-year period (2019-22) when their votes could have proved decisive. Most Democratic override votes took place during Cooper’s first two years in office or during the final two years, when Republicans could thwart Cooper regardless of Democrats’ input.

If Republicans hope to secure Democratic support in the face of a Stein veto, putting their “working supermajority” concept into effect, several likely candidates emerge from the statistics of the Cooper years.

Rep. Shelly Willingham of Edgecombe County voted to override Cooper vetoes 16 times and flipped his vote to support the governor on seven occasions. Rep. Carla Cunningham of Mecklenburg County voted to override Cooper 11 times, flipping her vote to help sustain the veto six times. Rep. Cecil Brockman of Guilford County voted to override Cooper nine times, including five occasions when he had missed the initial vote on the bill. Rep. Garland Pierce of Scotland County also supported nine veto overrides during the Cooper years.

While each of these lawmakers has been willing to support Republican-sponsored legislation that splits the Democratic caucus, none has been asked yet to override a Stein veto. They might take a different approach with the new governor. Alternatively, more colleagues might join them when they stick by their initial support for a vetoed bill.

Those choices could help shape the course of state government for the next two years.

Mitch Kokai is senior political analyst for the John Locke Foundation.