Some factors to watch now that we have Harris-Walz versus Trump-Vance

As promised, now that Kamala Harris has selected Tim Walz of Minnesota as her running mate, here are some thoughts/pondering about North Carolina and what to expect over the next several months. 

Three things that I'll be watching unfold: what strategy from both camps are focused on the Trump-Cooper 2020 precincts; what is voter enthusiasm, i.e. turnout, like; and what are the campaigns' message framing, especially on social media? 

The Trump-Cooper Swing Precincts of NC

Based on some precinct analysis from the 2020 general election, if we think about the Trump-Cooper kind of voter, two-thirds of those split-ticket precincts are in the state's urban suburbs and rural counties.

If you combine the total votes out of these Trump-Cooper precincts, you'll see how narrow the margins are:

A little over 9,000 votes swung from Biden to Cooper, and away from Trump to Forest. Further analysis by the four regions show that the bulk of votes came from the two key regions, urban suburbs and rural counties:

The urban suburbs saw little under a 3,500 vote swing, while the rural county precincts saw a 2,800 vote swing from Biden to Cooper. 

If the Harris-Walz campaign seeks to replicate this dynamic and if Walz can be the messenger to both urban suburban and rural voters, that could make those areas potentially amenable to the ticket. 

Turnout, Turnout, and did I mention Turnout? 

Along with the bombarding of campaign ads over the airwaves, one of the standard refrains North Carolinians will hear over the next three months is that it's all about turnout. In an intensely divided state like North Carolina, again consider the Trump-Cooper factor: less than three percent of North Carolina's electorate could go from voting Republican at the presidential level to crossing the ballot to vote Democratic for governor. 

For turnout, while persuasion can obviously work on this small sliver of the electorate, mobilization and energizing effect is crucial for the rest of the electorate. As a reminder, among party registrations, here are the general election turnout rates among registered voters by party registration since 2008:

Registered Republicans have usually had a 'plus' five to six point rate over the state-wide turnout rate, while registered Democrats typically meet the state-wide rate. Unaffiliateds, the largest block of registered voters, have a three to eight point deficit to the state's rate. 

But it's not just party registration. Turnout based on other factors is a crucial dimension to the electoral game in the Old North State, and one that I'm paying very close attention to is the generational dynamic. 

Voters under 45 are now 42 percent of the 7.5M registered voters in the state. But they have consistently had sub-par turnout rates: in 2020, Millennials had a 62% turnout rate, with Gen Z at 61%, compared to 75% state-wide. Pushing those rates up in a closely-divided state would likely be a significant task, but huge potential rewards, because as the percentage of North Carolina Millennials and Gen Zers increases in a precinct's electorate, the Republican vote share clearly goes down.

One other dimension to watch: are Black North Carolinian voters now motivated as well? In recent elections, Black voters in North Carolina have also failed to reach the state-wide turnout rate. Even in 2022, when a Black female was at the top of the ballot for the U.S. Senate, Black turnout was only 42 percent, compared to 51 percent state-wide. 

Campaign Intensity In the Home Stretch of Voting

Part of what makes turnout so critical is the intensity of voters: their energy, their enthusiasm, and their interest in showing up to cast a ballot. It's safe to say that Republicans had a clear advantage leading up to July 21, while Democrats were suffering a 'crisis of confidence' at the top of the ticket, and that likely had started to seep in down the ballot.

There are very few 'hail Mary' moments experienced in politics, but July 21 was certainly one for the Democrats. With Biden's withdrawal and ultimately Harris's ascendancy to the top of the ticket, the Democrats' crisis of confidence has turned into 'game on.' The onslaught of fundraising, combined with the surge in volunteers in just North Carolina alone, has to give some indication of a renewed sense of engagement and enthusiasm--all critical to the work needed in the home stretch. 

While North Carolina is one of the earliest states to begin actual voting (absentee by mail ballots will be sent out on September 6), the real test for North Carolina voter enthusiasm is likely to start on October 17, with early in-person voting. 

My thinking would be that again, like in past presidential years, we'll see the bulk--likely a significant majority--of North Carolina ballots cast before November 5 through early voting (both by mail and in person). And one way to track the campaign intensity: what's the party breakdowns of those early voters? As readers of this blog will know, we will have ways of finding that data. 

In today's highly partisan environment, if someone is a registered partisan in North Carolina (particularly under the age of say 60 years old), it's very likely that they are indeed voting for that party. And if they are engaged and partisan, it's likely they will be banking their ballots early in the process of voting. The great unknown, of course, are the unaffiliated voters, many of whom are likely shadow partisans in their political attitudes. 

One more factor: what's the campaign strategy around social media?

This isn't necessarily an area of professional research, but one that I'm growing more and more interested in watching as an observer. If indeed the 'young vote' is going to be a prized possession in this year's election (and we tend to say that every presidential election), is the predominance of social media, especially among Gen Z, going to have that powerful of an impact in mobilizing and turning out younger voters, especially those under the age of 28? 

And from a more professional viewpoint, how will both campaigns utilize social media platforms to generate their turnout strategies? 

As we get through the Democratic National Convention and 'in earnest' start the general campaign on Labor Day (which has been a long campaign already), I'm sure that there will be many other factors at play when entering the final days of 2024's election. But in reflecting back over just the past several weeks, it feels like there's a completely new dynamic at play in this presidential contest--and will that have an effect down the ballot with our nationalized politics? 

Most likely. As we wrap up the Olympics, America's next major sporting event will consume a lot of national attention. The teams will be fired up, the coaches will be making all the strategic moves, an upset is bound to happen somewhere at some point. And the fans will scream in enthusiasm or moan in agony. 

And oh yea, we've got college football starting as well. Enjoy all of the games--I know I will.

--------------------------------

Dr. Michael Bitzer holds the Leonard Chair of Political Science and is the incoming director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service at Catawba College, where he is a professor of politics & history. He is on various social media platforms at some variation of @BowTiePolitics.