So what might NC's 2024 electorate look like?

As I'm teaching U.S. Campaigns & Elections this semester, I always try to relate my research interests into material for class, and this fall's class is no exception.

Recently, a student asked the great question for 2024: "what will NC's electorate look like this November?"

And I said, "well, I wish I knew--as does every campaign strategist and candidate. But here's what we know, based on 2020's electorate and where we are now in the 2024 voter pool."

So I thought I would share that information beyond the folks in the class. A warning: a lot of data is coming your way, so be prepared to swim in the deep end of the pool.

First, a comparison of what 2020's voter registration pool was like (those registered and who could show up to vote) to the 2020 actual electorate (those who did showed up to cast a ballot). 

Starting with the most fundamental dynamic at play in the voter pool versus electorate: a North Carolina voter's party registration.

Based on voter party registration, the pool of voters was slightly more registered Democratic, while a third were registered unaffiliated and 30 percent registered Republican. But among those North Carolina registered votes who showed up to cast a ballot, registered Democrats were at their registration pool percentage, while registered Republicans were a third of the voters casting ballots (3 points ahead of their voter pool percentage), while registered Unaffiliated voters dropped to 31 percent.

Meaning, the electorate was slightly more registered Republican and less unaffiliated.  

This shift in the voter pool to the electorate is not unusual, due to the turnout rates that all three groups had in 2020, as evident in the next chart:

As is clear above, registered Republicans had a +6 point advantage over the state turnout rate, while the registered Unaffiliated voters were -6 point compared to the state. That turnout rate dynamic shifted the electorate from what we saw in the general registered voter pool. 

In terms of voter race-ethnicity, North Carolina's voter pool was 63 percent White non-Hispanic, 20 percent Black, and 3 percent Hispanic/Latino (any race), with the remainder being any other race or unknown/unreported.

But in the group of 2020 voters, White voters had a +3 point advantage to their overall voter pool number, with a slight dip in Black and Hispanic voters, in comparison. Again, this is due to turnout rates that saw a White voter advantage compared to voters of color.

In dividing the state into 'regions,' we see a majority (55 percent) of voters residing in the suburbs: either in the urban suburbs (inside an urban county but outside the major city) or in the surrounding counties to that urban county. Central city voters made up a quarter of the voter pool, while rural voters were a little over 20 percent. 

And while there were very subtle shifts into the electorate among the four regions, the further 'suburbanization' of the state's electorate boasted it to 57 percent of the votes cast. 

Finally, the generational dynamic of North Carolina showed a significant shift from its registered voter pool to the electorate. While 37 percent of NC voters were under the age of 40 in 2020's general election, those same voters were only 31 percent of the voters casting ballots.