Perceptions matter

Throughout the election, I heard some form of the question “How is this even close?” from Democratic friends and Democrats on social media. They could not believe that a convicted felon and sex abuser who rambled incoherently at rallies, incited an attempted insurrection, and threatened to lock up his political enemies could possibly win election to the White House again. And yet here we are.

As Democrats engage in discussions about what cost them the White House, they need to recognize that their brand is toxic with much of the American public. The party has allowed itself to be defined by its left flank. The positions that too many voters associate with Democrats are unpopular with most of the electorate. While I’m not sure those perceptions alone cost the party this election, more people fear Democrats governing than Republicans.

A post-election poll by a group called More in Common highlights the perception problem that Democrats face. According to their poll, Democratic voters’ actual top priorities were inflation at 40%, abortion and health care at 29% each, and the economy in general at 24%. However, when asked what people believed were Democratic priorities, they listed abortion first and “LBGT/Transgender rights” second. Climate change was third.

Democrats have become defined as an activist party, more concerned with narrow issues than broad ones. Voters, especially the low-information ones who decide elections, are self-interested. They care less about what is happening to various minority groups or the environment than what political leaders can do for them. If they want to win elections, Democrats need to start paying more attention to those voters and less attention to the interest groups that represent various causes.

The Democratic Party owns the responsibility for the misperception on abortion. They made much of the election about protecting abortion rights, miscalculating the saliency of the issue. Unlike 2022, in the immediate wake of the Dobbs decision, it was not the wedge issue or motivator that Democrats expected.

The transgender issue, and widely played ads Republicans produced, was the most effective wedge issue of the cycle. The ads combined a host of divisive, hot-button issues—crime, immigration, and transgender rights—and put Harris on the wrong side of all three as far as low-information voters are concerned. They ended with the tag line, “Kamala is for they/them; Donald Trump is for you.” According to More in Common, “In tests run by Harris’s main super PAC, 2.7 percent of voters shifted toward Trump after being shown the ad—a massive result.”

Finally, Democrats’ failure to better address the immigration problem gave Trump and the Republicans plenty of fodder. While Democrats supported a Republican Senate measure to strengthen immigration enforcement, they did not sufficiently tie it’s failure to Trump and the House GOP. Democrats still got tagged as the party of open borders, a position held by activists, not Democratic elected officials.

For years now, Democrats have allowed themselves to get defined by activists promoting narrow interests. In 2020, they had to defend against the “defund the police” movement and the perception they sided with looters over cops. In the spring, they struggled with separating themselves from anti-Israeli protests that often had more than a hint of antisemitism. This fall, it was the perception that they care more about special treatment for transgender people than average Americans struggling with the cost of living. None of these perceptions are very accurate, but that’s not relevant. The fact that too many people believe them is the problem.

Democratic candidates are going to have to untangle themselves from the activist wing of the party. As I said earlier, Democrats have become a coalition of interest groups. They need to become a voice for a broad section of the American public and build a much bigger tent.

For years, they were the party of the down-trodden, giving voice to the voiceless and standing up for average Americans against powerful interests. They were the party that fought for opportunity and against discrimination. Their message and identity had a strong economic component. They fought for people to have access to good jobs and housing. They were the party of the working class, regardless of race, gender, or ethnicity, not because of it.

Democrats need to find their way back. Trump and his collection of billionaires, grifters, and general miscreants will likely offer them an opportunity to redefine themselves. They need to be wise enough to see it and seize it, even if it alienates some people on their left flank.