North Carolina's Black turnout is way down

The first four days of early vote are behind us. A few things are very clear. Republicans have an early vote program that has driven up their share of the early votes. Some mountain counties are struggling to keep pace with their 2020 numbers while others seem to be fine. Most concerning for Democrats, African American voters are down sharply from four years ago.

In 2020, we were in the midst of a pandemic and Donald Trump told Republicans not to vote early. They listened. It wasn’t unusual. Republicans historically have put their efforts into Election Day GOTV and early in-person voting has been dominated by Democrats in North Carolina.

This year, Trump and the party are telling people to vote early in-person. They are preaching the virtue of early voting at their rallies and in their literature. Republicans are banking their votes and making up a much larger share of the early vote than they have in the past. They clearly have a successful program running, but it doesn’t mean they will outperform 2020. These early votes will likely reduce the GOP’s dominance of Election Day totals.

Out west, the impact of Helene is being felt somewhat in the early voting numbers. Buncombe is down almost 3,000 votes from the same in-person voting period as 2020. Henderson is down a few hundred. Yancy and Mitchell are down almost 20%. Madison is down 10%. However, there are also signs of resilience. Watauga early vote is up by more than 1,000 votes. Haywood County is up more than 1,200 votes. In the end, the hurricane may not affect voting nearly as much as early speculation, but if the Buncombe County deficit persists, it will hurt Democrats more than Republicans.

The most striking impact is among Black voters. So far, there are more than 67,000 fewer African American voters than there were in 2020 at this point in the in-person voting period. That’s a huge deficit that Democrats should be scrambling to address. They need to be shifting money and people to connect with Black voters and get them to the polls.

The problem is widespread. In Durham County, there are 4,500 fewer Black voter this year than four ago. In Mecklenburg, the number is 5,000. In Wake, it’s a little more than 3,000. In Cumberland, the Black vote is down by 5,000. In Guilford, the number is more than 8,500.

The problem is apparent in rural counties, too. In Wilson County, there are more than 1,000 fewer Black voters so far than the same period in 2020. In Halifax County, Black vote is also down more than 1,000. Same in Nash County.

Over the past few weeks, there’s been an internal argument within the Democratic Party about allocation of resources. Future Forward, the Democrats’ largest SuperPac this cycle, has been criticized by organizations working to motivate African Americans who believe there’s been too little investment in Black GOTV efforts. North Carolina might exemplify the validity of that criticism.

There’s still time to make corrections, but the Democrats need to make adjustments quickly. If these shrinking numbers hold through the election, they will almost certainly put North Carolina out of reach for Kamala Harris and will likely jeopardize several council of state seats. In addition, Representative Don Davis will probably lose his Congressional race.

There are some bright spots for Democrats. Despite the lackluster Black turnout in Wake County, 6,000 more Democrats have voted than voted in 2020. In Orange County, early vote is up 6,000 in a county that delivers for Democrats by large margins. White college educated voters seem to be all in for Harris and the Democrats and are voting to prove it.

So, here are the take-aways from the first four days of early voting. The GOP has a substantial early vote program that it has not had in the past. The votes they are banking now will likely reduce their traditional Election Day advantage, but it’s too early to know by how much. There’s some reduced turnout in the mountains due to the impact of Helene, but not as much as feared. It’s hard to know if the impact will have an effect on the outcome of the election.

The biggest change from 2020 is the African American turnout. It’s down substantially and Democrats need to focus on solving the problem quickly. They should be shifting resources from white college educated voters to African American voters. I suspect they need to change both the message and the field operation. If they close that gap, they have good chance of winning. If the gap persists, November 5 will be a tough night for the party.