North Carolina is a state in play

As we enter the final weeks of the 2024 campaign, here’s the stay of play: North Carolina is a state in play.

The latest Carolina Journal Poll has Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by an insignificant six-tenths of a percentage point. No surprise there. Our presidential contests have been tightly contested for the better part of two decades, with Trump winning North Carolina by a point in 2020 and a little over three points in 2016, Mitt Romney winning it by two in 2012, and Barack Obama snagging it in 2008 by a measly three-tenths of a point.

Also as usual, North Carolinians will choose a Democrat for governor. The CJ Poll and most others have Josh Stein leading Mark Robinson by double digits, although it’s possible enough GOP voters will come home, however reluctantly, to reduce Stein’s winning margin to the high single digits.

As for the other 13 statewide races — nine other Council of State offices, three Court of Appeals seats, one Supreme Court matchup — nearly all are three-point races or closer.

Democrats have small edges for lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and state superintendent of public instruction. Republicans lead in races for agriculture commissioner, labor commissioner, insurance commissioner, state treasurer, and, just barely, state auditor. For Supreme Court, the CJ Poll has Republican Jefferson Griffin ahead of Democrat Allison Riggs by 1.4 points.

With 11% of more of voters still undecided in down-ballot races, there’s no basis for confident prediction. Either party could manage a near-sweep by Election Day. Or they might split roughly 50-50.

Similarly, while Democrats have no realistic possibility of taking one or both chambers of the General Assembly, they currently enjoy a slight edge in the generic ballot question for legislature. Winning the handful of seats required to end Republican supermajorities, thus strengthening the hand of a Gov. Stein, is a realistic possibility — but only that.

One fascinating feature of the CJ Poll is a segmentation model of the 2024 electorate consisting of the Democratic base (41%), the Republican base (41%), and the rest, labeled Undecideds.

The size of that third group might strike you as odd given what you’ve read so far. Keep in mind, however, that to have mixed feelings about some issues or races is not to be undecided about everything. Only about 19% of this group, translating to 4% of likely North Carolina voters, have no stated preference for president. But fully 42% of them are uncertain who they’ll pick as governor — and a whopping 60% or more remain undecided for Supreme Court and other down-ballot races.

What does this universe of soft partisans and swing voters look like? Well, 57% are women and 62% are non-Hispanic whites. Half are registered unaffiliated, while Democrats and Republicans each make up a quarter. Most live in rural areas and describe their political ideology as moderate, with conservatives accounting for 37% and liberals only 8%. About 30% said their household income was $100,000 or more, compared to 36% of Republicans and 36% of Democrats (which is an interesting finding on its own terms).

Most of these folks have participated in just one or two of the past four presidential elections. In 2020, most of those who voted picked Trump.

In short, voters still making up their minds about at least some of North Carolina’s 2024 contests are, as a group, modestly right-of-center. That pretty much sums up our state’s electoral outcomes over the past 16 years: modestly right-of-center. Republicans generally win federal races and most statewide races, though often by narrow margins. Democrats generally win offices such as governor and attorney general. Republicans win most local offices in most counties but Democrats are strong in populous urban ones. This pattern gives the GOP an advantage in legislative races, one accentuated but not created by district maps. Still, their supermajorities are fragile.

These factors explain why North Carolina is a state in play, now and for the foreseeable future.

John Hood is a John Locke Foundation board member. His latest books, Mountain Folk and Forest Folk, combine epic fantasy with early American history.