North Carolina Election Heats Up: Trump leads Harris by 1 point; Stein widens advantage over Robinson in race for Governor

The latest ECU Poll, conducted August 26 through 28, shows former President Donald Trump with a one percentage point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in North Carolina, 48% to 47%, which is well within our margin of error (+/- 3%). With Election Day just a little over two months from now, only 3% remain undecided. Some 2% indicated that they plan to support an independent, minor-party, or write-in candidate. 

In the election for Governor of North Carolina, Democrat State Attorney General Josh Stein leads Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson 47% to 41% among likely voters. Another 11% are still undecided, with 2% supporting an independent, minor-party, or write-in candidate. Stein has outpaced Robinson significantly since our poll in early June, where Stein’s lead was only 1 point, 44% to 43%. 

Both Harris and Stein have opened leads on their Republican opponents among key groups. Among independents, Harris leads Trump 47% to 37%, and Stein leads Robinson 50% to 32%. Among women, Harris has a slight lead on Trump 50% to 45%, while Stein has a significant lead over Robinson, 50% to 36%. Harris also leads Trump 86% to 6% among African Americans, while Stein leads Robinson 81% to 9% among African Americans. By comparison, Trump runs stronger than Robinson among white voters. Here Trump holds a 31-percentage point lead over Harris (64% to 33%) compared to a 16-percentage point lead for Robinson over Stein (52% to 36%).

When asked to identify the most important issue in deciding their vote in the upcoming election, 30% answered inflation and/or the overall cost of living, which is down from our previous poll in early June, when it was 42%. Other top issues in the current poll included the economy in general (22%), abortion (14%), border security (13%), affordability of health care (4%), climate change and/or the environment (3%), and violent crime and/or public safety (3%).

To evaluate the impact of the nominees for Vice-President of the United States, we asked Trump and Harris supporters if their candidate’s choice for a running-mate made them more likely to vote for their candidate, less likely to vote for their candidate, or if it had no impact on their vote. When asked about Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, 44% of Trump supporters said the selection made them more likely to vote for Trump, 1% said it made them less likely to vote for Trump, and more than half (52%) said the selection of Vance had no impact on their vote (with the remaining 3% indicating that they did not know enough about J.D. Vance). When asked about Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, 68% of Harris supporters said the selection made them more likely to vote for Harris, less than 1% said it made them less likely to vote for Harris, and 31% said the selection of Walz had no impact on their vote (with the remaining 1% indicating that they did not know enough about Tim Walz). 

Overall, 41% of likely voters in North Carolina approve of President Biden’s overall job performance, while 52% disapprove (with 6% who are not sure). Democratic Governor Roy Cooper performs better than Biden with a 51% approval rating and a 37% disapproval rating (with 12% reporting they are not sure).

Overall, 38% of registered voters in North Carolina have “a lot of confidence” that the 2024 election results will accurately reflect the votes that are cast, with another 40% reporting “some confidence” and almost one-in-five (19%) expressing “no confidence” (with 4% unsure). Voters are divided on this question along party lines, with 67% of Democrats reporting “a lot of confidence” in the results while only 9% of Republicans answered similarly. About a third of Republicans (32%) have “no confidence” in the vote count compared to only 1% of Democrats who have no confidence.

In assessing the results of the poll, Dr. Peter Francia, Director of the ECU Center for Survey Research, remarked, “Kamala Harris has shaken up the presidential election. When Donald Trump’s opponent was Joe Biden, it seemed very likely that North Carolina’s Electoral College votes would go again to the Republican presidential candidate for the fourth consecutive time. Now, that seems significantly less certain. The nomination of Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate has moved North Carolina squarely into the category of toss-up states.”

Methodology

This ECU Poll was conducted August 26-August 28, 2024. The results in this poll are based on 920 completed responses to the poll’s questionnaire from a random sample of North Carolina registered voters who are likely to vote in the 2024 general election. Respondents completed the poll either through cell phone via MMS-to-web text (N= 502) or through landline phone via Interactive Voice Response (N=418). The firm, Aristotle, provided the sample for both the cell phone and landline phone lists. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample of likely voters in this poll is +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.