Looking at stateside elections

I have stayed away from writing much about November’s elections because it’s been a constantly changing picture.
 
Biden dropping out, Harris getting the coronation, Democratic euphoria, VP speculation, then Roy Cooper publicly announcing he was dropping out. What’s a political pundit to do?
 
There are four reasons I think Cooper made the announcement. I’m sure was tired of all the questions and speculation. He didn’t dare leave the state for any extended time because when he does Lt. Governor “Reckless Robinson,” thinks he’s in charge. Coop is a great campaigner and is vitally important in helping Democrats down the ballot. But the biggest reason is that Roy Cooper wants to run for the US Senate against Thom Tillis in ’26.
 
There’s more energy and enthusiasm among Tar Heel Democrats than I’ve seen in decades…at least since the 2008 Barak Obama contest. They now believe they can deliver 19 electoral votes for Harris and also win down ballot elections. Suddenly, there’s a resurgence in believing we truly are a swing state.
 
Obama carried North Carolina in 2008 but lost to Romney by 2 percentage points in 2012. Trump won in 2016 by only 3.6 percent and again in 2020, but by a narrow 1.4 percent margin. Democrats are saying Donald Trump is yesterday’s news and has all the votes he’s going to get. His campaign rants and outrageous boasts may even lose him some votes. Biden’s withdrawal left the GOP floundering and J.D. Vance is certainly not helping them.
 
Let’s look at important stateside races. The current 7-7 split between Republicans and Democrats in congress will not survive. Republican legislators have so gerrymandered the congressional districts that it is hard to foresee Democrats winning more than 3 of the contests.
 
The most consequential contest in our state will be the governor’s election, where contrasts couldn’t be greater. Democrat Josh Stein is hoping to keep alive the streak of Attorneys General who ascended to the governor’s office. Mike Easley started the modern trend by winning in 2000 and Roy Cooper followed suit in 2016.
 
We’ve not witnessed a candidate like Mark Robinson, who surprisingly won the Lieutenant Governor’s race in 2020. Read some of his quotes that help explain why we call him “Reckless”.   “Some folks need killing.” “Black Democrats are slaves.” He claims the Moon landing and 9/11 were faked. Transgender women should “find a corner somewhere outside to defecate.” LGBTQ+ people are “maggots” and Michelle Obama is a “transgender woman.” This list could go on. No wonder Governor Cooper is scared to leave the state.
 
The Hill, an online political newsletter, compiled 32 of the most recent polls on the race. It shows Stein leads Robinson by only 2.6 points, 40.9 vs. 38.3. Most seasoned observers are amazed.
 
While the polls might be close, money, the “mother’s milk” of elections, isn’t. In the required second quarter financial filings, Stein raised $13 million and had almost $16 million in the bank. Robinson ended the quarter with $6.6 million.
We are hearing whispers about what a “Reckless Robinson” administration might be like. It sounds eerily like what Project 2025 proposes. Robinson has reportedly told legislative leaders he will stay out of the budget process. Instead, he will devote his attention to downsizing and dismantling state government. First on the chopping block will be the Department of Transportation, a traditional target of whichever party isn’t in power. He will then plunge into the Department of Health and Human Services, the largest state administrative agency. And it is no surprise that the Department of Public Instruction will be revamped, with Mark promising to reduce the bureaucracy and return money and authority to local school systems. Wonder how lawmakers will accept his effort of handling state funds?
 
Since judicial decisions are increasingly partisan, appellate court races are of vital importance. There is only one State Supreme Court election, with current Justice Allison Riggs (D) running against Court of Appeals Judge Jefferson Griffin. If Riggs prevails the current margin of 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats remains. There are three races for the Court of Appeals.
Incumbent Democrat Carolyn Thompson is facing Thomas Murry. Incumbent Republican Valerie Zachary runs against Eb Eldred and Democrat Martin Moore faces Republican Christopher Farmer. Currently there are 11 Republicans and 4 Democrats on this court.
 
And every Council of State office will be up for election with a guarantee we will see new faces in the office of Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Treasurer, Auditor and Superintendent of Public Instruction. More on these contests as they develop.
 
Enjoy the Olympics because TV, your mail box and social media will be chock-a-block with nasty political ads starting later this month.
 
Many important decisions will be made by voters in November. Regardless of where you live or what political persuasion you might have the one message that is critically important this year is to register and vote.
 
Tom Campbell is a Hall of Fame North Carolina broadcaster and columnist who has covered North Carolina public policy issues since 1965.  Contact him at tomcamp@carolinabroadcasting.com