Hurricane Helene factors into dead-even presidential election in NC

A new survey by the Elon University Poll has found that Hurricane Helene has galvanized the plans of about a fifth of North Carolina’s voters to cast ballots in this year’s election and identified a sharp split along partisan lines about whether federal and state agencies are doing a good job responding to the devastation the hurricane caused in the western part of the state.

Some 59% of the state’s registered voters said they, their families or their close friends and neighbors have been affected by the damage of Hurricane Helene, with 21% saying they have experienced a lot of impact. The hurricane has influenced voting intentions – 20% said they are more likely to vote because of Helene and only 2% said they are less likely to cast a ballot.

The poll found that the presidential race in the state is a dead heat: 46% of the state’s registered voters supported Republican Donald Trump and 46% backed Democrat Kamala Harris at the time of the survey. Some 9% of North Carolinians said they back another candidate or are not decided at this late stage of the race. These findings are virtually unchanged from the results of a September survey by the Elon Poll. When results were limited only to those registered voters who indicated they are likely voters, Harris and Trump remain tied with each garnering 47% of the vote.

“The seven ‘swing states’ in 2024 account for 93 electoral votes. Most forecasters see Donald Trump as needing 51 of those 93 electoral votes and Kamala Harris as needing 44 to reach the critical threshold of 270,” said Professor Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll. “North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes would go a long way for either campaign, and our results are consistent with most other surveys showing North Carolina remains far too close to call. With very strong early voting turnout for both parties, North Carolina is a state likely to be decided by how the 4% of undecided voters break between the two candidates.”

In the North Carolina governor race, Democrat Josh Stein has widened his lead over Republican Mark Robinson, with a 21-point advantage, compared with the 14-point advantage Stein held in the September survey by the Elon Poll conducted before news broke about his online history. Nearly half of voters (49%) said Stein would provide better leadership in North Carolina’s recovery from Helene while only 27% said Robinson would provide better storm recovery leadership.

Western North Carolina is still working to recover from the flooding, mudslides and significant damage to the region’s infrastructure from Hurricane Helene, and the Elon University Poll explored opinions statewide about how government agencies are responding to the hurricane’s aftermath. The survey found sharp partisan differences in how voters view the response: 68% of Democrats said federal and state agencies are doing a “very good” or “good” job, while only 24% of Republicans said they felt that way. Some 57% of Republicans said government agencies are doing a “very poor” or “poor” job, while only 12% of Democrats felt that way.

Asked which presidential candidate is more likely to provide the resources and support North Carolina will need to recover from Helene, 84% of Republicans said Trump would do a better job and 89% of Democrats said Harris would.

This is the third of three surveys conducted by the Elon University Poll during the fall 2024 election season. Along with tracking the presidential, gubernatorial and council of state races in North Carolina as well as the response to the hurricane, the survey explored key election issues and opinions about the integrity of the upcoming election and anticipated response to the results. The poll of 800 North Carolina registered voters was conducted Oct. 10-17 and has a margin of error of +/-3.99%.

Election issues and concerns

The Elon University Poll has been tracking voter opinions about key issues during this election season and has found that the state of the economy continues to be top of mind among those casting ballots this year. A survey by the poll in August found voters generally giving low marks for the national and North Carolina economy with nearly half of voters saying their personal financial situation has gotten worse since President Joe Biden took office.

Asked in this most recent survey to choose the top three issues in the presidential campaign, 71% of these voters cited the economy, 41% said immigration and 34% said health care. White voters were more likely to list immigration as a top concern than Black voters while Black voters were more like to list abortion and health care as a top concern.

The poll revealed that North Carolinians continue to be apprehensive about the integrity of the election process itself. If Harris is officially declared the winner, 49% said they were “not at all” confident Trump would accept the results and another 21% were “only a little confident” he would do so. If the opposite happened – Trump were officially declared the winner – 65% of voters said they were “very” or “somewhat” confident Harris would accept the results, and 36% were “not at all” or “only a little” confident of that.

“Many North Carolinians are on edge right now about the election, but what people worry about differs by party,” Husser said. “Republicans are more concerned about fair and accurate vote counts while Democrats are more concerned about the other party’s nominee not accepting the results of the election. Voters of both parties are united, however, in that over 60% of both Democrats and Republicans see it as at least somewhat likely people working on behalf of either of the major presidential campaigns will try to fraudulently change the outcome of this year’s election.”

Some 47% said they had no trust or “only a little” trust in the U.S. Supreme Court to fairly resolve the outcome of the presidential election if there were a legal dispute. At the same time, 53% had “a great deal” or moderate level of trust the Court would make a fair ruling. Some 62% of Democrats said they had little or no trust the court would be fair, compared with 69% of Republicans who felt the court would be fair.

The state’s voters were also worried about these election integrity issues:

62% said it is “highly likely” or “somewhat likely” that people working for either presidential campaign will try to fraudulently change the outcome of the election.

Overall, 54% said the election will produce a fair and accurate count of votes nationwide but there is a big partisan divide: 80% of Democrats said they expect a fair and accurate count while only 35% of Republicans and 42% of Independents expect there will be a fair and accurate count.

61% of voters were very or somewhat confident that most Americans will accept the election results, with Democrats slightly more confident than Republicans that the results will be accepted.

53% were very or somewhat concerned that voters will be intimidated or harassed when going to vote. And 39% of those planning to vote early said a reason for doing so is that they would feel uncomfortable or have safety concerns about voting at their polling location.

Statewide races in North Carolina

Democrat Josh Stein has expanded his lead over Republican Mark Robinson in the race for governor in North Carolina as Robinson has continued to contend with fallout from objectionable online posts he allegedly made. The survey found 48% of voters have a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” impression of Stein while 28% of voters have a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” impression of Robinson. That is down from a level of 32% with a very or somewhat favorable impression of Robinson the poll found during a September survey.

Fully 72% of voters said they are aware of news reports alleging offensive and sexually explicit posts by Robinson on a pornography website. Of those aware of the allegations, only 23% said they believe Robinson’s denial that he made the posts. Some 8% of Republican voters said they have switched and will now vote for Stein because of the allegations. Overall, Robinson was viewed unfavorably by 55% of voters. That includes 82% of Democrats, 71% of Independents and 69% of Black voters.

“While the presidential race in North Carolina is very close, our findings add to a long-established trend showing the gubernatorial race as one likely to be won by the Democrat Josh Stein, primarily because the Republican candidate Mark Robinson is broadly unpopular,” Husser said. “Though our poll shows a very large lead for Stein, I suspect the magnitude of that lead could shrink to some extent if many of those who would normally vote for Republicans for Governor simply decide to leave that portion of the ballot blank or cast a protest write-in or third party vote rather than vote for a Democrat.”

The poll showed Democrats hold leads in the races for several top state offices on the ballot:

• Lieutenant Governor: Rachel Hunt (D) – 41%, Hal Weatherman (R) – 36%
• Attorney General: Jeff Jackson (D) – 43%, Dan Bishop (R) – 38%
• Secretary of State: Elaine Marshal (D) – 41%, Chad Brown (R) – 36%
• Superintendent of Public Instruction: Maurice (Mo) Green (D) – 43%, Michele Morrow (R) – 35%

“Relative to the presidential election, our most recent poll shows a notable Democratic advantage in all four of the Council of State races we polled, suggesting that Robinson is harming down-ballot Republicans,” Husser said. “Though we find leads for Democrats in the lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state and superintendent of public instruction elections, undecided voter percentages are quite high in all those races. This suggests caution to those anticipating a Democratic sweep of the Council of State because enough undecided voters exist to match or exceed that Democratic advantage.”

The Elon University Poll also asked voters about when they plan to cast a ballot this year and their opinions on the future of political divisions and extreme weather.

41% of North Carolina’s registered voters said they will participate in early voting this year, while 46% plan to cast ballots in person on Election Day. Republicans were more likely than Democrats to say they will be election-day voters. For those voting early or absentee, convenience and wanting to get it over with were cited as the two most important factors for their decision to vote early or absentee.

Asked what they expect the future to hold, 33% of the state’s voters said they expect government and politics will be more divided, 23% said more unified and 44% said things will be about the same.

68% said hurricanes are becoming more severe while 23% said the storms are about the same.

Poll Methodology

The survey was constructed by the Elon University Poll in partnership with The Charlotte Observer, The News & Observer and The Durham Herald-Sun and fielded by the international marketing and polling firm YouGov as an online, web-based survey, self-administered with online panels. Between October 10-17, 2024, YouGov interviewed 915 respondents who were registered voters in North Carolina. These respondents were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset.

Throughout this report, the analysis of partisan differences compares the views of Republicans plus those who lean Republican in their voting preference with Democrats plus those who lean Democratic. A sample composition file from the survey provides more details. The margin of error for this poll (adjusted for weights) is +/-3.99%.