Harris could fix Democratic problems in North Carolina

Kamala Harris has upended the presidential contest. While it’s too early to know the real result of her ascendancy to the top of the ticket, the initial response has been more than just a little impressive. Money, especially from first time donors, has poured into the campaign, breaking the one-day record for donations and including tens of thousands of first-time donors. Volunteer sign-ups show a newly energized electorate providing the horsepower for a muscular grassroots effort. She has generated an enthusiasm that has been lacking since Biden announced his candidacy.

The campaign released a memo this morning that shows a path to victory that could bolster candidates in North Carolina. The people getting most energized are the ones that propelled Obama to victory in the state in 2008. Harris leads Trump by wide margins among young people, African Americans, and Latino voters, the same people Josh Stein and the rest of the Council of State need to see engaged. The memo lists North Carolina specifically and says, “We intend to play offense in each of these states, and have the resources and campaign infrastructure to do so.”

In 2022, Democrats across the country had a big election night. In North Carolina, not so much. Republicans retained a veto proof majority in the state senate and were only one vote shy in the state house, a situation that changed when Democrat Tricia Cotham switched her registration to Republican. Most significantly, Cheri Beasley lost to Ted Budd in the U.S. Senate race by about 120,000 votes.

The enthusiasm that Harris is generating could fix the problem Democrats faced two years ago. Back then, African American turnout sank to the lowest level since before Obama’s victory in 2008. Turnout among voters under 40 was also lackluster. Still, the Senate election was one of the closest in the country, despite a significantly smaller investment in North Carolina than in any of the other battleground states.

This year, North Carolina has a stellar line-up of Council of State candidates that reflects the population of the state. Harris just adds strength to the ticket, energizing the parts of the base that needed shoring up. Enthusiasm among African American voters and young people could offset the margins in rural counties of the always-motivated Trump voters.

Nationally, the energy among African American voters was reflected in zoom calls in the hours following Biden’s endorsement of Harris to replace him. More than 44,000 Black women joined a zoom call that had initially expected 1,000 people. Not to be outdone, Black men convened a call that attracted 53,000 attendees to a virtual event. If the momentum continues, the Harris campaign could generate African American turnout not seen in almost 16 years.

Young people are also adopting Harris. They’re generating Tik-Tok videos that turn moments that cause boomers to cringe into memes that Gen-Z loves. Kamala is brat. (I don’t know what it means, but it’s apparently good.) They are also sharing cooking videos that Harris made on YouTube. Who knew? I heard about them from my kids who are demonstrably excited to see her at the top of the ticket.

Finally, I’m getting flashbacks of 2004. Back then, Democrats had a wildly successful convention in Boston where they came out unified behind a Kerry-Edwards ticket and ready to take on Bush-Cheney. Within a week, the Swift Boat ads changed the conversation, putting Democrats on the defensive and erasing their post-convention bump. The GOP convened a convention in mid-August that gave them momentum they never lost.

This year, Republicans had a convention that was widely seen as a success, unifying their party and giving them momentum heading into late summer. Biden dropping out and Harris taking the top of ticket nullified any post-convention boost the GOP was expecting. This time, Democrats will hold the later convention that could showcase unity in a party that seemed to be struggling for the past year.

Again, I should caution that it’s still too early to know what the effects of the change will be. However, there’s clearly renewed enthusiasm among the Democratic base that’s measurable through donations and volunteer sign-ups. We’ll find out in the coming weeks whether undecided voters will embrace Harris or lean toward Trump. Regardless, it’s going to be a tough fight and Democrats seem to be preparing for fall.

Get ready to rumble.

Thomas Mills is founder of PoliticsNC, a reader supported