Did a ‘Robinson effect’ cut Trump’s NC coattails short?

In the 2022 midterm elections, a highly anticipated “red wave” failed to actualize across the nation, but North Carolina was a notable exception. Republicans were able to sweep all seven statewide races — with Ted Budd winning the US Senate race and the state Supreme Court being flipped to a strong Republican majority. Republicans also gained seats in both state legislative chambers.

But in 2024, this dynamic flipped — the red wave arrived everywhere across the nation, but North Carolina was fairly unique in that Republicans had a mixed night at best. Of course at the very top of the ticket, the GOP had reason to celebrate the victory of President Donald Trump. But there weren’t a whole lot of other major victories to point to.

Republicans were not able to hold onto their legislative supermajority. They also lost the highest-profile Council of State races (that of the governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and state superintendent of public instruction). Democrats also won the sole swing congressional district, NC-1. Judicial races, on the other hand, were a rare bright spot for Republicans.

With Trump handily winning the state, Republicans began looking around for an explanation. And it didn’t take long for them to point towards Mark Robinson.

WSOC’s Joe Bruno said, “A GOP source tells me the mood inside Republican circles is Lt. Governor Mark Robinson cost the party multiple races down ballot.”

Key NC GOP Senate attorney Brent Woodcox said, “Looking at North Carolina statewide election results which split 5-5 between Republicans and Democrats even as Trump increased his share of the vote, a clear pattern emerges. I call it the Mark Robinson corollary. Those candidates that could be most easily tied to him lost.”

Luke Stancil, a Republican political strategist, praised NC House campaign workers for being able to win in this context, saying, “It’s not an easy job to manage so many races. Mark Robinson’s unfortunate candidacy probably costed us 3 seats and [the Council of State]. NC House Rs would not be sitting at 71 without that staff.”

Even NC Senate Leader Phil Berger, a Robinson ally, acknowledged this, saying, “I don’t think there’s any question that the wall of money that came in against Mark Robinson had a significant impact. I also think that the news story out of CNN had a significant impact in that race, and probably had some slight impact in some of the other races, particularly statewide races.”

I spent some time on the State Board of Elections website trying to find a county where Robinson performed on par with his fellow Republicans, but to not avail.

Below is Alamance County, a growing county between the Triangle and the Triad. Candidates that broke around 44,000 votes won their races. So Trump easily did, Robinson lost quite handily, and the other candidates had very competitive races.

Instead of an exurban county, let’s look at an urban center like Mecklenburg, where Charlotte, North Carolina’s largest city lies. Robinson again was far below Trump, and the other candidates were in between, but closer to Trump. The argument that Robinson may have had a dragging effect on the other major candidates again appears plausible.

Now let’s look at a more rural county, the far-west Macon County. All the other candidates were in the 14,000 vote range, give or take, with Trump again out ahead. But Robinson didn’t break 12,000.

You could call this a “broken coattail effect.” There were potential coattails to ride from Trump’s big night, which were successfully ridden in most other states. But having the very next candidate after the popular candidate be an incredibly unpopular candidate appeared to tear off those coattails.

Some in the GOP base, understandably, are loyal to Robinson and resent any blame being directed his way. They may see these lower numbers for him and suggest his popularity was tanked because Republicans were too cowardly to stick up for him amidst the attacks.

There are even some theories that the GOP actively participated in taking him down for one reason or another. The inflection point is a series of articles that hit in September. Many media outlets and political operatives knew about these (and other) allegations, but the campaign of Robinson’s Democrat opponent, Attorney General Josh Stein, is believed to have waited until strategically late to release the full information to media.

First, The Assembly released a story alleging that Robinson frequented a porn shop, almost daily, decades ago. Then, CNN released a story alleging that Robinson had made shocking racial and sexual comments on pornography forums. Then, Politico released a story alleging that he also had an account on the adultery facilitating website Ashley Madison.

Some Republicans called on Robinson to step down and be replaced as the candidate in the final moments where that would have been possible. Robinson denied the allegations, and subsequently announced a lawsuit against those making the claims, but few stood by him. His staff, both at the campaign and the lieutenant governor’s office, including his most loyal senior staff, largely resigned, unconvinced of his side of the story.

While it’s true that many voters turned against him at this moment too, it’s not accurate to say that he was within striking distance before the scandal. Stein had been hammering him since June with ads, and he was being negatively defined in ways seen clearly in the polls.

The polls below, from Real Clear Politics, showed that Robinson was fairly competitive after winning his primary, but in August the negative ads took their toll on his public perception. It did get worse after the September stories dropped, but things were clearly trending towards the 15-point blowout that resulted.

It might just be that Trump is a one of one — uniquely able to appeal to voters as funny, brash, empathetic, aggressive, lovable, and competent, while brushing past negative press. Voters see his past affairs and “mean tweets” and shake their head at them, but they don’t run for the hills. At this point, voters feel like they know Trump and all the risks and benefits associated with him. It’s all part of the package.

But others who attempt to imitate Trump’s style or playbook have not had the same success — whether Mark Robinson in North Carolina or Kari Lake in Arizona. So while scandals never seem to stick to Teflon Don, this cycle has shown that bad press and revelations of past unsavory behavior can still take down a candidate, and maybe some of the candidates’ downballot partisans as well.