Democrats take a bath

There’s no other way to describe the General Election than to say Republicans enjoyed a stunning victory, winning the presidency, both houses of congress and a large number of state and local races.
 
Democrats were stunned, asking themselves how they could have been so wrong. Truthfully, they misread or were misled into mistaken assumptions. It cost them, big time.
 
Pollsters certainly misled Democrats, repeatedly saying the presidential race was too close to call in “battleground states.” Results revealed otherwise. Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina were called for Trump before midnight and by 5:30 Wednesday morning Wisconsin provided Trump with more than the 270 electoral college votes he needed to win outright. Come January, Republicans will control all three branches of the federal government.
 
Democrats had campaigned on the belief that Donald Trump was an anomaly – he didn’t speak for the norm of American voters. New York Times reporter Peter Baker said the Democrats’ problem was that Trump and his followers were the norm, and the Democrats were the anomaly. Former Senator Claire McCaskill said that anger and fear proved more powerful than appealing to our better angels.
 
North Carolina Democrats’ hopes were buoyed by the record turnout of 57 percent of voters in early voting. But Dems misread red flags about who voted. Republicans cast the largest number of early votes and African American votes were much lower than anticipated.
 
Trump had only beaten Biden by only 1.3 percentage points in 2020 in our state. Democrats believed they could overcome that margin. Wrong again. Trump bested Harris by almost 4 percentage points.
 
They missed another red flag. Elaine Marshall, who had consistently been one of the leading vote getters for the seven elections she had won as Secretary of State, kept telling friends and supporters that the polls showed her in a tight race this year. Most dismissed this possibility, believing she would once again coast to an easy victory. She won, but by less than 2 percent.
 
Republican Mark Robinson was never a serious factor in the gubernatorial contest. It turns out polls were pretty accurate, showing Democrat Josh Stein with a 14-point lead. But given the weakness of his opponent Stein should have won by more than the actual 14.7 percent victory he scored. Likewise, in the Lieutenant Governor’s election. State Senator Rachel Hunt, daughter of the four-time governor, squeaked by Hal Weatherman, former chief of staff to Lt. Governor Dan Forest, had never run for statewide office. That margin should have been much larger than 1.7 percent.
 
There were two closely watched Council of State races. Two incumbent congressmen were vying to become our state Attorney General: Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Jeff Jackson. Jackson raised the most money, ran a stronger campaign and reminded voters that Bishop had been the chief sponsor of HB2, the highly unpopular “bathroom bill.” Jackson won, but by little more than 2 ½ points.
 
The Superintendent of Public Instruction race had been strange from the start. Michele Morrow defeated incumbent Catherine Truitt in the March primary. Truitt was considered by many to have been a good Superintendent, but Morrow got Trump’s endorsement. Like Robinson, she had not been properly vetted. As details about her and her positions became known, she was labeled a radical…or worse. Mo Green, the Democratic nominee and former Superintendent of Guilford County Schools, ended up the victor, but again by less than 2 percent.
 
Superintendent of Insurance Mike Causey and Superintendent of Agriculture Steve Troxler won re-election fairly easily. The State Auditor’s race was a bit more interesting. When incumbent Beth Wood stepped down, Governor Cooper named Jessica Holmes to fill her post until the election, hoping her incumbency would propel her to win a term outright. Her opponent, Dave Boliek was a more active campaigner, raised more money and had experience as the chair of the UNC Chapel Hill Board of Trustees. Boliek won by almost 2 percent.
 
Two newcomers competed to become the next Commissioner of Labor. Republican Luke Farley, the more visible of the two won by 5 points. And the State Treasurer’s seat was open, with Republican Brad Briner defeating Wesley Harris by 5 points.
 
Democrats took a licking in statewide judicial races, with incumbent Democrat Allison Riggs narrowly losing her seat on the Supreme Court to Jefferson Griffin. Our highest court will now consist of 6 Republicans and 1 Democrat. Three Republicans swept the open seats on the 15-member Court of Appeals. The GOP will control two of the three branches of state government.
 
There were a couple of bright spots for Democrats. They picked up a seat on the ten-member Council of State and prevented a veto-proof majority in the state House. This should help Governor Stein in negotiations with the legislature.
 
However you evaluate this election it was not a good night for Democrats, either in our state or nationally.
 
Tom Campbell is a Hall of Fame North Carolina broadcaster and columnist who has covered North Carolina public policy issues since 1965.  Contact him at tomcamp@carolinabroadcasting.com