Democrats got post-debate bounce

Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson was likely to lose the 2024 gubernatorial election to Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein before the Sept. 19 CNN piece tying him to a series of grotesque posts made more than a dozen years ago on a pornography site.

In five September surveys of likely North Carolina voters taken before the story broke, Stein led Robinson by an average of nine points. A subsequent Siena College poll, done in partnership with the New York Times, included interviews on Sept. 20 and Sept. 21. It put the Democrat’s lead at 10 points.

As the general-election campaign unfolded, I never thought Stein could win by double digits. North Carolina’s recent history of competitive races for governor argued strongly against it. I still find such an outcome hard to believe, even though most of Robinson’s campaign team has departed and national actors such as the Republican Governors Association and the Trump campaign will be keeping their distance from now on. The electorate remains highly polarized, after all.

But if the Robinson candidacy — the vulnerabilities and risks of which I’ve written about before — ends in a Josh Stein blowout, Republicans may be significantly hampered in their ability to compete for other statewide offices on the ballot this year.

The richest polling data on this question can be found in the Carolina Journal/Cygnal survey from mid-September. Across a wide range of races, it generally showed a pro-Democratic bounce after the Kamala Harris-Donald Trump debate on Sept. 10. In August, the CJ poll had the presidential race at Trump +3.1 points. Now, it’s essentially tied, at Trump +0.3. During the same period, Stein’s lead for governor grew from 4.4 points to 6.3 points.

Continuing down the ballot, the latest CJ poll has Democrats leading by at least a point in the races for state superintendent of public instruction (Mo Green +4.1 points), Supreme Court (Allison Riggs +2.5), secretary of state (Elaine Marshall +1.7), attorney general (Jeff Jackson +1.5), and lieutenant governor (Rachel Hunt +1.5). In most cases, their GOP opponents had slight leads back in August.

Republicans still enjoy modest leads in races for agriculture commissioner (Steve Troxler +3.2), state treasurer (Brad Briner +1.7), and insurance commissioner (Mike Causey +1.4). In two other contests, the candidates are separated by less than a point. For labor commissioner, it’s Democratic Braxton Winston at 41.3% and Republican Luke Farley at 40.9%. For state auditor, it’s Republican Dave Boliek at 38.9% and Democrat Jessica Holmes at 38.3%.

Finally, the poll poses “generic ballot” questions for Congress and General Assembly. Republicans lead in the former by 3.1 points and in the latter by less than a point.

With the exception of the gubernatorial and superintendent races, the spreads are smaller than the 3.99% margin of sampling error. More importantly, 15% or more of likely voters remain undecided in most of these matchups. With even the leading candidates polling in the low 40s, there is still plenty of “play” here.

Democrats could end up reclaiming a solid majority of Council of State seats. Or late-breaking voters could give Republicans a near-sweep of them. Election Day is still six weeks away. We’ll see many more political stories between now and then.

On second thought, perhaps “suffer” would be a more fitting verb than “see.”

A final note: some readers may feel disinclined to trust polling data from Carolina Journal, since its editorial page leans rightward. Naturally, as its founder, I don’t feel that way. But there’s no need to take my word for it. Over its long history, what is now called the Carolina Journal Poll has always attempted to model North Carolina’s electorate accurately. Survey research for public consumption is costly. If the results routinely differ from reality, the investment is wasted.

In the 2022 race for US Senate, for example, the last CJ Poll gave Ted Budd a 3.8-point lead over Cheri Beasley. He won by 3.2. No other public poll was closer to the final result.

John Hood is a John Locke Foundation board member. His latest books, Mountain Folk and Forest Folk, combine epic fantasy with early American history.