Big day for Republicans

by Tom Campbell, Executive Producer and Moderator, NC SPIN, November 5, 2014.

The conclusions are inescapable: Republicans scored a big victory in Tuesday’s mid-term elections. Thom Tillis’ victory over first-term Senator Kay Hagan was the deciding factor in turning over control of the U.S. Senate to Republicans. That victory, coupled by the pickup of a seat in Congress and strong legislative victories solidifies the control that the GOP has in North Carolina.

The record number of early voters helped ensure that a record turnout total for mid-term elections. Some 2.7 million people voted, about 40 percent of the 6.6 million registered. Pundits will opine the large vote was the result of the huge sums spent on advertising, but most likely it reflected voter angst. Democrats clearly didn’t show up in the numbers needed to win, especially minority voters. It didn’t help that the State Board of Elections website was down much of the evening and those truly interested in results were further frustrated by TV stations crawling the same few races repeatedly, relegating full coverage to their digital channels or late newscasts. But Democrat’s claims that the 2013 election laws suppressed voting proved to be inaccurate.

The Senate election was the headliner and proved to be as close as all the polls predicted. But polls can’t always predict turnout and Hagan’s touted ground game didn’t live up to expectations. Tillis took advantage of voters’ disillusionment with President Obama and the do-nothing Congress. In a toss-up election the incumbent usually wins but after 110 million in negative TV ads, resulting in widespread disappointment in both candidates, the electorate decided they disliked Thom Tillis least.

None of the Congressional races were interesting as Republicans picked up the seat held by retiring Democrat Mike McIntyre in the 7^th District and held the 6^th District contest, running their margin to 10 seats and reducing the Democrats to three in Congress.

The Judicial races went pretty much as expected, with Republicans dominating the appellate courts in the supposedly non-partisan contests. In one notable defeat the GOP lost in Robert Hunter’s bid to hold the seat against Sam Ervin, IV. Longtime followers will credit the victory to the fact that the Ervin name still has cachet in our state but with so many young and transplanted voters that is unlikely. It is worth noting that this particular contest was probably the most honorable statewide election on the entire ballot…both candidates refused to disparage the other and Hunter went so far as to profess friendship with Ervin, declaring he would publicly denounce anyone or any group that tried to discredit Ervin. Robin Hudson continued to reap benefits from the hatchet job done on her during the primary and won. The gang of 19 running for retired Judge John Martin’s Court of Appeals seat split the vote. Better-known candidates John Tyson and John Arrowood led the field, with Tyson winning in the winner-take-all contest.

In legislative races Republicans didn’t suffer the predicted mid-term blues. Some had thought Democrats had a shot at eliminating the veto-proof majority held by Republicans but the GOP actually gained a seat in the Senate and lost only three in the House, retaining the supermajorities in both houses. Two well-known Republican legislators were thrown out in the Asheville/Buncombe County region and a legislative leader in Wake was defeated, but by and large incumbents prevailed. Governor McCrory no doubt watched with great interest as the loss of the supermajority, especially in the Senate, might have given him a stronger hand in dealing with that body.

Local option elections didn’t fare well as 8 out of 10 counties voting to increase sales taxes defeated the measures. There were a few bright spots for Democrats, especially in urban counties. They won all four county commissioner races in Wake, defeating better-known incumbents. All 7 Wake commissioners will now be Democrats for the first time in anyone’s memory.

Republicans generally strengthened their grip on this state’s control and Democrats got further proof of their lack of a coherent message, credible candidates or adequately financed campaigns. In the red-state, blue-state discussion North Carolina became more decidedly red, not purple, as some have suggested. The stage is now set for the 2016 elections and Democrats have a long hill to climb.