Women's vote in Virginia should send warning to McCrory

Visiting Richmond over the weekend, I was interested in reading about the Virginia governor's race.

Democrat Terry McAuliffe is expected to beat Republican Ken Cuccinelli soundly tomorrow.

A big reason, as University of Mary Washington poly sci prof RosalynCooperman wrote in the Times-Dispatch Saturday, is the women's vote.

Sitting Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell (who could not run for re-election) took 54 percent of the women's vote four years ago.

But a recent poll put McAuliffe 18 points ahead of Cuccinelli among women voters, Cooperman noted.

"McAuliffe is all-in on a fully negative strategy to remind, if not scare, women voters about Cuccinelli’s conservatism on women’s health issues like abortion and contraception based on his actions as Virginia attorney general and state senator," Cooperman wrote. "So far, McAuliffe’s strategy has largely worked as social issues have remained prominent in the campaign and Cuccinelli has been forced to spend precious time and money convincing voters that, if elected governor, he will not take away their contraception."

Those aren't the only issues by any means. And Cooperman says McAuliffe can overplay that hand.

Nevertheless, Cuccinelli is going to lose big because most women distrust him.

Which ought to worry our own Republican governor, Pat McCrory, who will be able to run for re-election in 2016 and probably hopes to win.

McCrory famously promised he would not sign any bill restricting access to abortion and then signed a bill restricting access to abortion.

When some women protested outside the Executive Mansion, he carried out a plate of cookies.

So, what about McCrory's numbers?

His "gender gap" is growing.

A poll released last week by the conservative Civitas Institute found McCrory's approval rating at 48 percent among men and 39 percent among women.

Back in March, those respective numbers were 58-55, according to Civitas. So not only is McCrory sliding, but he's sliding much more among women.

For younger women, the numbers are astonishing.

Civitas conducted polls in March, April, June and October. McCrory's approval ratings among women ages 18-44 were 51, 47, 32, 27. Among men in the same age group, the numbers were 55, 56, 44, 40. A gap of four points in March ballooned to 13 points by October, to the point where barely one-fourth of women younger than 45 approve of his job performance -- according to an Art Pope-funded poll.

Fortunately for McCrory, he has three years to reverse his decline. But he's fallen so far, so fast -- especially among younger women -- that he has a steep climb.

Getting on the wrong side of women voters is not a smart political strategy. McCrory might watch tomorrow's election returns from Virginia with more than a little trepidation.