Women and men
Published September 16, 2014
by Carter Wrenn, Talking About Politics, September 15, 2014.
More telling than Kay Hagan’s overall lead in the polls may be her overwhelming lead with women.
According to a Rasmussen Poll last week, Hagan leads Thom Tillis by six points, 45-39. But then it gets confusing. The poll said Hagan leads among women by 21 points, while Tillis leads among men by nine points.
Say again? If the vote splits 50-50 between men and women, and Hagan leads with women by 21 and trails by men by nine, isn’t she then ahead by 12?
Unless Rasmussen assumes that a whole lot more men will vote than women.
If that assumption is wrong, and if women turn out heavily, Tillis is – as the fellow Down East once said – “Toast. T-O-S-T, toast.”
