How bizarre is it that in an extremely important and closely divided political state that BOTH major political parties can have “pretty good” election nights? That is in fact what happened in North Carolina. In Part 1 I look at why NC Republicans should celebrate. In Part 2, I look at how the NC Democrats had a very strong performance.
NC Republicans delivered a strong victory for President-elect Trump.
In the closing days of election 2024, North Carolina became the most important swing state, according to the travel schedules of the Democratic and Republican candidates for president. Mr. Trump held four events in our state in the final three days. Mrs. Harris did about the same.
Lifted by unprecedented mail and early in-person voting by conservatives, Donald Trump won North Carolina for the third straight time. For the first time, Trump crossed the 50% threshold mark, with 50.86% of the vote compared to Harris’ 47.64%.
Trump won the state by 3.2%, up from 1.3% in 2020 and nearly matching Trumps 3.6% victory in 2016. North Carolina was the first of the seven battlegrounds to be called for Trump. In total, the state moved 1.9% towards Trump.
Republicans flipped the script on early voting
For the first time in history, covering over five presidential elections in which similar rules were in place, North Carolina Republican voters beat Democrats in early voting performance, including mail and early in-person voting combined.
Democrats finished the 2024 early vote period in third place, behind Republican and Unaffiliated voters.
In early voting, Democrats finished behind their 2020 pace by about 270,000 votes. Republicans beat their raw 2020 turnout by about 30,000 votes. The GOP finished early voting a net gain of 300,000 voters in the bank at the end of early voting over 2020, a historic and unimaginable achievement. Donald Trump won 106,000 votes via mail, up from 98,000 in 2016.
In 2024, Trump won 2.1 million votes during early in-person voting, up from 1,900,000 in 2020 and 1,375,000 in 2016.
For Republicans, voter registration mattered:
From the beginning of President Biden’s term until the 2024 election, NC Democrats lost 42,000 registered voters, according to data from the John Locke Foundation’s Carolina Elections data center.
The NCGOP gained 180,000 registered voters, for a net GOP gain of 222,000 partisan registrations. Half of these gains came in the last 18 months, from July of 2023 until November of 2024, as Republicans had a net gain on Democrats of 110,000 registered voters.
While most new voters in North Carolina choose to register as unaffiliated voters, partisan voter registration still shows the strengths, weaknesses and trends of both political parties. The strength of GOP voter registration also forecast a strength in voting preference among unaffiliated voters, which Donald Trump won by a few points.
North Carolina Republicans picked up three US House seats
North Carolina Republicans secured three additional US House seats, moving the state from a 7-7 delegation to a 10-4 GOP advantage.
The NCGOP did lose the hotly contested First Congressional District but showed positive growth in the traditional Democratic stronghold of northeast North Carolina. Republicans clearly have a strong chance to flip this district before the end of the decade.
Republicans “survive” governor’s race debacle
The GOP’s scandal-plagued nominee for governor, Mark Robinson, was blown out by 15 points, 55-40, the worst loss for either party in a governor’s race in four decades.
Republicans rightfully blame close losses for lieutenant governor and attorney general on the Robinson campaign collapse. Worse still, Supreme Court candidate Jefferson Griffin’s expected loss by a few hundred votes is directly linked to Democrat Governor-elect Josh Stein’s run-away victory and the Democrat campaign’s ability to send $3 million in campaign contributions to Democratic Supreme Court candidate Allison Riggs.
However, Republicans still won 9 of 15 statewide races, including open contests for state auditor, state treasurer and labor commissioner. Republican incumbents retained insurance and agriculture commissioner races. Despite the heartbreaking loss in the state Supreme Court race, Republicans still won three of four statewide judicial seats.
Despite the Supreme Court loss, Republicans still hold a 5-2 majority on North Carolina’s highest court. Democrats had a majority on the state Supreme Court as recently as 2022. Republicans, who held an 11-4 advantage over Democrats on the on the state Court of Appeals coming into the election, have extended their advantage to 12-3.
Finally, Republicans had a net loss of just a single seat in the legislature. The NCGOP continues to hold an outright supermajority in the state Senate and retained a functional supermajority in the statehouse, just one seat short of an outright supermajority. Republicans will continue to set the policy agenda for the next two years in Raleigh.
After the 2024 election, North Carolina Republicans:
- have won the state for the GOP presidential candidate for the fourth straight times and the 11th time out of the last 12 presidential elections;
- control both US Senate seats and 10 of 14 US House seats;
- control 101 of 170 state legislative seats, including 30 of 50 state Senate seats and 71 of 120 state House seats;
- control both the state Supreme Court and state Court of Appeals, controlling 17 of 23 statewide elected judicial seats;
- occupy half (5 of 10) statewide elected Council of State seats. Prior to the 2000 elections, NC Republicans controlled zero.
Next up: A look at surprising NC Democratic success in 2024.
