Where are the ads?
Published December 17, 2015
by Thomas Mills, Politics North Carolina, December 16, 2015.
By this time in 2013, North Carolina was in full-tilt campaign mode. Third-party groups were running ads for and against both Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis. We knew we were in for a long ride.
This year? Nothing. I think a pro-McCrory group may have run some warm and fuzzy ads in an attempt to get his numbers out of the basement, but we haven’t seen the sustained television buys that began in October 2013, more than a year before the election. With the most contested gubernatorial race in the country on the ballot and Senator Richard Burr still relatively undefined, I thought we would already be watching ads by now—not that I’m too disappointed.
So what gives? In 2014, the Senate race was at the top of the ticket. This year, the presidential race will drive most the cycle. The Senate race in North Carolina is still murky. Democrats have a primary between relatively unknown candidates. Nobody is going to be shooting at Burr until the national super PACs and nonprofits are sure they’ve got a viable opponent. Burr, for his part, is sitting on his money for the same reason.
The gubernatorial race will probably be the marquee race in North Carolina. It’s the one that has the biggest stakes for policy and politics for the next four years. Democrats want to unseat Pat McCrory and then take enough seats in the legislature to prevent a veto-proof majority. McCrory suffers from low approval ratings and has been hampered by ethics problems throughout his tenure. Cooper suffers from lower name recognition and is still relatively unknown to the electorate.
I’m surprised we haven’t seen ads from pro-Cooper groups slamming McCrory to keep his numbers low. Candidate McCrory is better than Governor McCrory and if he can stay away from his real job and just cut ribbons and make announcements, he might be able to rebound. He comes across as likable and approachable when he’s not having to defend his record or his honor.
On the flip side, I’m surprised the McCrory people haven’t started trying to define Cooper before he can define himself. In 2014, the Tillis campaign drove Kay Hagan’s negatives to almost 50% and they never really came down after that. I expected the same tactics by the GOP this year.
Maybe they’re waiting until after the presidential primaries to get a better read on the political environment. Maybe most of the money is focused on the presidential contests. Regardless, we’re getting a reprieve compared to 2014. I doubt it will last much longer so enjoy it while you can.
