What happened

Published November 7, 2014

by Gary Pearce, Talking About Politics, November 6, 2014.

“Anybody who says they knew this was coming – Democrat or Republican, pundit or pollster – is lying,” a veteran campaign operative said Wednesday

 

The polls all missed it. Close races turned into routs. Narrow Democratic wins turned into Republican wins. Turnout models missed the mark, Early-voting hype was misleading.

 

Tillis consultant Paul Shumaker did tell donors last week that internal polls showed Tillis had caught up with Hagan.

 

The instant analysis that it was an anti-Obama vote. But why did it turn so suddenly at the end, when Obama had been the focus of Republican campaigns all year?

 

A theory: A combination of factors – in-state, national and international – came together in late October to exacerbate anti-Obama feeling, energize Republicans and swing most undecided voters to Tillis and the Republicans. Including gay marriage, ISIS, Ebola and the Hagan-stimulus issue, with “stimulus” being a code word for “Obama.”

 

A useful perspective came from a smart young field operative who, unlike many of us, spent a lot of time this year talking to real voters, especially undecided voters. Those voters have very little interest in politics, he noted. Consequently, “they don’t know the legislative candidates, they don’t follow the legislature, they don’t know much about Tillis and Hagan, they don’t know who holds the House or Senate. They know two big things: They’re not happy with the economy and the way things are going, and they know Obama is President.”

 http://www.talkingaboutpolitics.com

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November 7, 2014 at 9:10 am
Norm Kelly says:

This post concludes with the important take-away. Uneducated, ill-informed or uninformed people went to the polls and made the difference in who was elected. This time around it worked in favor of Republicans instead of DemocRATS. Except in Wake County where, for some unknown, illogical reason, Demoncrats were elected.

Of course, the other interesting tidbit to garner from this post is the reference to 'code words'. This is something that lib pols tend to do; use code words to say one thing but mean something else. Then libs tend to accuse Republicans, Conservatives, Libertarians, TEA people of also using code words. Except this group tends not to use code words; this group tends to say exactly what they mean which also gets them in trouble with lib pols and their allies in the media. What did 'stimulus' mean during the campaign? It meant that the central planners were STEALING money from the private sector, filtering it through the hands of the central planners, spending a portion of the money, paying off donors & supporters, and laughing that there were NO shovel ready jobs as promised. So, the question of 'stimulus' came down to where the money ended up. Since there were no shovel ready jobs, we have the video, the money trail obviously went to supporters, allies, donors, and family members. Kinda like what happened with K and her family. Not just donors & supporters, but family members of a supporter in the Senate. Funny money. Except when money is stolen from one group to buy off another group, there is nothing funny about it. Libs constantly whine about 'crony capitalism' when they accuse Republicans of doing it, but LOVE it when they get to choose who to pay off. Like when the occupier paid off the CEO of GE for all of his support. He wasn't producing jobs in AMERICA, but because of his support for the occupier he was made 'jobs czar'!

So, whine & complain that the Republicans campaigned against the occupier. With very good reason. His administration is a failure. Outside of spending money and implementing phase 1 of socialized medicine, has no record of success. Economy sucks. Job creation sucks. What is good about his administration? What did the Demoncrats campaign on? Abortion. Unrestricted, unregulated, as free as possible abortion for anyone, anytime, anywhere that it's asked for. Libs even support late term or partial birth abortion. Oh, and there was the issue of forcing taxpayers to pay for inexpensive birth control for women. Because the cost is so extravagant that women should NOT be forced to buy their own birth control pills. Except they aren't that expensive. And I should pay for my own, not for yours! What else did they campaign on? Republicans want to stop spending, want to make taxes fair by stop penalizing success, and Republicans want to get central planners out of MY personal, private life. Which makes more sense? Continued deficit spending, increasing regulations, increasing taxes and penalizing, stealing money from the private sector, regulating my private life OR balanced budgets, decreased taxes, a fair tax code, reduced regulation, and the central planners the HE11 out of my life!? Of course, only a lib/socialist would say that central planner control of every aspect of my life is good. And only a lib/socialist would say that socialized medicine is more efficient and better than private medicine. And only a lib/socialist would say that taxing on INCOME instead of PROFIT is reasonable. Cuz only libs love stealing money from someone else. Penalize success or Reward success? That is the difference between libs/socialists and Republicans/Conservatives/Libertarians/TEA people.

Even the ill-informed, low-information voters made the correct choice this time around. This is a good thing even if it was done by mistake.

November 7, 2014 at 10:59 am
Richard Bunce says:

That's a them problem... not a make it easier to vote problem. Most of them would be educated in traditional government school systems as well where whatever is taught about the Constitution must focus on the imaginary powers of the President and ignore the actual significant powers of Congress and limited powers of the President.

November 8, 2014 at 9:13 am
Robert White says:

Hey Guy, I just have a question,

How'd that whole Clay Aiken thing work out for democrats & you? You did give him a glowing endorsement didn't you? Keep picking winners like him. Please. This week is so much more satisfying reading the post mortems from pundits such as yourself.