Trump Leads Harris by two in North Carolina; Josh Stein opens large lead over Robinson

The latest ECU Poll, conducted September 23 through 26, shows former President Donald Trump with a two-percentage point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among likely voters in North Carolina, 49% to 47%. (The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3%.) Only 2% remain undecided, with another 2% indicating that they plan to support an independent, minor-party, or write-in candidate. These results show little change from the previous ECU Poll, conducted August 26-28, that had Trump leading Harris by a single percentage point, 48% to 47%.

A major shift, however, has occurred in the election for Governor of North Carolina. State Attorney General Josh Stein now leads Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson 50% to 33% among likely voters. Stein’s lead over Robinson has increased significantly since our last poll, when Stein held a 6 percentage point advantage, 47% to 41%. The results of the current poll also show that 13% of likely voters are undecided (with the remainder of voters indicating that they will vote for an independent, minor-party, or write-in candidate).

Robinson’s support has slipped among his base and among independents. In the previous ECU Poll, Robinson had the support of 83% of Republicans and 32% of independents. Now Robinson has the support of 63% of Republicans and 30% of independents, whereas Stein has the support of 90% of Democrats and 48% of independents.

Among women, Stein has a nearly doubled his advantage over Robinson since the last ECU Poll. Stein holds a 27 percentage point lead over Robinson, 54% to 27% compared to a 14 percentage point advantage (50% to 36%) previously. Stein also now leads Robinson among men, 45% to 40%, representing a 9 percentage point gain since last month when Robinson led Stein among men, 47% to 43%. Robinson’s support has declined as well among white voters from 52% in the last ECU Poll to 42% in the current poll and among African American voters from 9% to 6%.

By comparison, Trump continues to lead Harris among men (56% to 40%) – an increase from the 52% to 43% advantage that he held previously. Harris, however, has seen her lead among women grow to 9 percentage points (53% to 44%) compared to a 5 point advantage earlier (50% to 45%). Trump continues to lead among white voters (66% to 32%), while Harris leads among African American voters (90% to 7%). These margins are similar to the last poll when Trump led among white voters (64% to 33%) and Harris leads among African American voters (86% to 6%).

When asked to identify the most important issue in deciding their vote in the upcoming election, 30% answered inflation and/or the overall cost of living, which remains unchanged from our previous poll, when it was also 30%. Other top issues in the current poll included the economy in general (25%), abortion (14%), border security (11%), affordability of health care (5%), climate change and/or the environment (4%), and violent crime and/or public safety (2%).

Overall, 39% of likely voters in North Carolina approve of President Biden’s overall job performance, while 55% disapprove (with 7% who are not sure). Democratic Governor Roy Cooper performs better than Biden with a 51% approval rating and a 38% disapproval rating (with 11% reporting they are not sure).

In assessing the results of the poll, Dr. Peter Francia, Director of the ECU Center for Survey Research, commented, “The recent scandals surrounding Mark Robinson have had a major impact. What was once a competitive race in the election for governor of North Carolina no longer is. As of now, Josh Stein is the clear and overwhelming favorite to be the next governor of North Carolina.”

Methodology

This ECU Poll was conducted September 23 through September 26, 2024. The results in this poll are based on 1,005 completed responses to the poll’s questionnaire from a random sample of North Carolina registered voters who are likely to vote in the 2024 general election. Respondents completed the poll either through cell phone via MMS-to-web text (N= 608) or through landline phone via Interactive Voice Response (N=397).

The margin of sampling error for the entire sample of likely voters in this poll is +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.