Tillis rebounds against Hagan in Civitas Poll

by Jim Tynen, Civitas Institute, Augsut 5, 2014.

The latest Civitas Institute Poll shows that House Speaker Thom Tillis has edged back into the lead in a head-to-head matchup with Sen. Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race. When voters were asked about only those two candidates, Tillis, a Republican, was the choice of 45 percent of registered North Carolina voters; Democrat Hagan was favored by 43 percent. The results are within the 4-point margin of error.

The previous Civitas Poll comparing support for only those two candidates showed Hagan ahead 47-43 percent; a month earlier Tillis led 46-41 in that comparison.

As in previous polls, Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh had an impact on the newest survey when his name is included.

In the current poll, when Haugh is included the results are 41 percent for Hagan, 39 percent for Tillis and 7 percent for Haugh. In the previous month’s polling, Hagan was the choice of 42 percent, Tillis of 36 percent, and Haugh of 9 percent. A month earlier, the results were 36 percent for Hagan, 39 percent for Tillis, and 8 percent for Haugh.

The live-caller poll of 600 registered North Carolina voters took place July 28-29, 2014, and had a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percentage points. Of respondents, 25 percent were contacted via cellphone.

Text of questions:*

“If the election for US Senate were being held today for whom would you vote between ….”

5/14      6/14      7/14

39%       36%       39%       Total Tillis, the Republican

36%       42%       41%       Total Hagan, the Democrat

8%          9%          7%          Total Haugh, the Libertarian

15%       12%       12%       Total Lean/ Undecided

31%       30%       29%       DEFINITELY TILLIS

8%          6%          10%       PROBABLY TILLIS

2%          1%          2%          LEAN TILLIS

27%       36%       35%       DEFINITELY HAGAN

9%          7%          6%          PROBABLY HAGAN

1%          1%          1%          LEAN HAGAN

4%          5%          5%          DEFINITELY HAUGH

5%          4%          2%          PROBABLY HAUGH

1%          1%          1%          LEAN HAUGH

10%       9%          7%          HARD UNDECIDED

1%          –            –            OTHER

1%          –            1%          REFUSED

“And now suppose only two candidates were running for U.S. Senate. For whom would you vote between: Thom Tillis, the Republican or Kay Hagan, the Democrat?”

5/14      6/14      7/14

46%       43%       45%       Total Tillis

41%       47%       43%       Total Hagan

12%       9%          10%       Total Lean/ Undecided

37%       36%       39%       Definitely Tillis

10%       8%          6%          Probably Tillis

1%          2%          2%          Lean Tillis

9%          5%          5%          Undecided

2%          1%          3%          Lean Hagan

10%       8%          7%          Probably Hagan

31%       39%       36%       Definitely Hagan

–            1%          2%          Refused

*Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Crosstabs here.

This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted July 28-29, 2014 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 7, 2012.The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”

Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters.

http://www.nccivitas.org/2014/new-civitas-poll-tillis-rebounds-hagan/