Tillis, Hagan campaign ads take state into new realm
Published October 26, 2014
by Rob Christensen, News and Observer, October 25, 2014.
This is what a Senate race looks like when money is no object.
The North Carolina Senate race is expected to pass the $100 million mark this year, blowing past the old record of $76 million spent in Massachusetts when Democrat Elizabeth Warren defeated Republican incumbent Scott Brown in 2012.
But that will come as no surprise to anybody who has turned on their TV lately and seen a steady rat-a-tat-tat of attack ads – some of which actually contain grains of truth.
But is anybody paying attention to the TV blitz? And is anybody benefiting beyond the TV station owners and shareholders?
A focus group of 10 Charlotte mothers conducted for Wal-Mart by a bipartisan polling team last week found that the women were blocking out the ads. If anything, they viewed them as an unrelenting irritant.
Two veteran operatives of North Carolina Senate campaigns, Democrat Gary Pearce and Republican Carter Wrenn, say there are diminishing returns as one ad appears after another ad.
“There is clearly a point where people can’t absorb any more,” Pearce said. “The question is, is it possible that one of the ads or a few of the ads has some piece of information that makes a difference with that little slice of undecided voter? I just don’t know. There is a saturation point.”
Wrenn said that after a certain volume of ads, people develop a resistance and begin tuning them out after the first couple of seconds. People are also not inclined to watch three or four political ads during a single commercial break. As the attacks pile up, they lose their credibility.
Harder to break through
It takes an unusual ad to break through the clutter.
An example of a successful ad was in 1984 when North Carolina also set a national record for a Senate race by spending $26 million ($60 million in today’s dollars). Republican gubernatorial candidate Jim Martin was able to break through the barrage by appearing in a red flannel shirt and speaking directly to voters. It was so different and so positive that it had an impact, Wrenn said.
Today, it is even more difficult to reach voters. There are far more channels. People are watching programs on their computers, or watching commercial-free channels, or watching recorded programs on a delayed basis, where they can fast-forward through commercials.
Hagan went on the air heavily after the Republican primary in May, with commercials that attempted to define Tillis as the leader of an unpopular Republican legislature.
Since then, she has led in most of the public opinion polls.
Is Tillis too late?
Tillis and his allies stepped up their advertising buys in recent weeks, hammering away on a broad range of issues including the Islamic State, Ebola, and whether Hagan’s family business benefited from a federal stimulus grant. But the question is whether Tillis waited too late.
For the Wal-Mart moms, the ads have become one big blur.
Both sides are now throwing millions more onto the airwaves. Pearce said it is sort of like the theory of “mutually assured destruction” involving nuclear weapons. It may be overkill, but both sides are afraid to stop building new missiles.
“We have sort of reached a point where no state has gone before,” Pearce said. “It’s sort of like the ‘Star Trek’ of TV ads right now.”
http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/25/4256331/christensen-tillis-hagan-campaign.html?sp=/99/102/
October 26, 2014 at 8:01 am
Richard Bunce says:
It isn't the money, it has never been the money, it is the votes.
October 26, 2014 at 12:09 pm
Norm Kelly says:
Is Tillis too late in putting ads closer to the actual election? Of course not. There are relatively few who pay attention to political ads until just before the election happens. This group is typically referred to by biased, left-leaning media types as the 'undecideds'. Why are they undecided? Is it because they are trying to take in all the information and make an informed decision based on what their research tells them? In VERY FEW cases, extremely few to be honest, this could describe some of the great multitude of 'undecideds'. Some of the undecideds are those who are illegal aliens or others who vote fraudulently, and are either not polled prior to the election or can't answer polling questions because they are illegal and/or not actually registered. Does this happen. Obviously it happens. How do we know? Two ways that we know voter fraud happens. First libs/socialists/demons claim it does not happen. Second because EVERY study that comes out comparing voter registration rolls with citizenship verification shows that as many as 114,000 (I believe this is the number I read in the 10/26 N&D) registered voters in NC may be illegals. Either illegal aliens registered to vote or out-of-staters registered illegally in NC. If the upcoming Senate race is as close as it could be, then this number of questionable voters could make the decision for the legal voters. (one wonders why the polling is so close in an election where the choices are so obvious. i mean K demonstrate her support of socialism to such a great extent that no one should still be wondering about her positions on any matter!)
But back to the question of Tillis being too late. The obvious answer is NO. The closer the ad appears to voting day, the better it is for Tillis. We all KNOW that the demon party has figured this out. For decades they have produced what they refer to as 'The October Surprise'. It's usually a manufactured, incomplete, distorted, or factually inaccurate statement about the personal life of their Republican opponent. And for any lib that MIGHT stumble across my reply, using the words 'factually inaccurate' is the politically correct way of saying 'outright lie', but libs are predisposed to believe that lib pols are incapable of telling lies, and are opposed to using the word 'lie' so I do my best to be a good lib sometimes and sugar coat some things so libs can suck it down and maybe come up with the truth. A long shot, but something has to click with these people. Waiting until just before the actual election day just MIGHT click with some low-information, undecided, voter somewhere that might turn them to the proper side and cast an intelligent vote rather than an emotional vote.
The other reason to wait until mid-late October to do some advertising is to overcome the Noise & Disturber endorsements. No sense in doing some things until AFTER the N&D has made their normal enthusiastic endorsement of EVERY demon running for EVERY office on the ballot. Today's N&D editorial page does just this for us. Why does anyone give any credibility to the N&D editorial board? Not a clue. First, they support, endorse, champion the likes of the buffet slayer, repeatedly carrying his blatherings without question or comment. Second, because the N&D editorial board has YET to meet a good lib they didn't heartily endorse. They didn't just endorse A candidate for Wake County commissioners. They 'enthusiastically' and without question endorsed EVERY SINGLE demon pol running for Wake County commissioner. Not a SINGLE REPUBLICAN candidate for WC commissioner deserves honorable mention from the N&D. Does this make anyone wonder about the unbiased nature of the N&D? Does this bias paint the rest of the N&D editorial writers? Of course it does! There is NO WAY to work for an organization that is an ally of the demon party and yet you remain unbiased. It's not possible. Every time you go to write even a single word that could be interpreted as possibly being positive about ANY Republican you know it would be slapped down hard by your management, those guys who write your paycheck. Doubt me? Check out Gary & Rob. Do they walk the fine line of 'unbias' created by their bosses at the N&D? Or are these 2 representative of toeing the line of outright support and endorsement of every lib/socialist pol out there? Check out Chris's writings sometime. Another writer in the N&D that toes the line quite well, regardless of the circumstances. Write something good about a conservative pol or candidate? Would it be allowed in the pages of the N&D? Did they earn the accurate description 'N&D' for nothing?!
When you read an editorial by Rob, Gary, or Chris, know in advance that you need to believe so little of it as to throw it out without continuing to read. If you are looking for truth, information, honest reporting AND editorializing, then the pages of the N&D are NOT for you. If you want to find out what your favorite lib/socialist candidate or pol is up to and how heartily the N&D editorial writers support and endorse said lib pol, then the N&D is your source for spending time. Not gathering information. Not getting news. But knowing what words to use the next time someone questions why you support the lib pol/candidate, you will be able to properly regurgitate the blatherings of the N&D. You will easily be proven misinformed, but you will repeat the misinformation accurately. Reading N&D editorials is like reading press releases from the K campaign. Bet if you read both the N&D editorial pages and the K campaign press releases, you will find very little difference, if any.
(If you want to know how some lib pol has gamed the system and stolen money from taxpayers, don't read the N&D. If you want to learn about the made-up information about a conservative/Republican pol having some questionable relationship with a financial supporter, read the N&D every day. Knowing the truth of what goes on in the halls of political buildings will not be found in the N&D. Understanding how YOUR money is spent/wasted by pols won't be found in the N&D. Remember, most pols and every lib refers to government spending as 'investments'. Remember the tea cup museum Raleigh paid for. An investment. Remember the lake-rated ferry used in the ocean to transport school kids? An investment. Neither was 'wasted money' because both were done when the demon party controlled Raleigh! Same with the Parton theater. Same with the coal ash ponds that have existed and been leaking 'for decades'. Demon party control of Raleigh when it happened, but it's a Republican problem, according to the demon party AND their ally the N&D.)
October 27, 2014 at 8:39 am
Hiram Abiff says:
Tilis doesn't need last minute ads. This election is his with a big-red-bow on it.
October 27, 2014 at 11:56 pm
Richard Bunce says:
That's what Representative Cantor thought too... until the voters speak next week... it isn't done.
