Smart voters

Published June 12, 2014

by Gary Pearce, Talking about Politics, June 12, 2014.

Everybody has a theory about why Eric Cantor lost, one that usually reflects their overall theory about politics: It was about immigration. Cantor was aloof and arrogant. The Tea Party is still a force in the GOP. Voters lie to pollsters. Pollsters are stupid.

Let’s consider another possible factor, one that echoes last month’s primaries in North Carolina: Are voters growing more resistant to traditional paid media?

 

Cantor spent $5.4 million. David Brat spent $200,000. That’s 27-to-1. The usual rules say that if you outspend your opponent 27-to-1, you can relax and drink a latte with lobbyists Election Day (which Cantor did).

 

Another number: Cantor’s pollster reportedly had him winning 62-28. He lost by 11 points.

 

Last numbers: About 65,000 people voted. One analyst said the turnout was 14 percent.

 

Again, I invoke the Thomas Mills Primary Poll Rule: primary polls are unreliable because it’s hard to predict who will vote. Especially with a low turnout.

 

But there’s something more. Cantor dominated the traditional paid media – TV ads and direct mail. He drowned Brat (what a name!) there.

 

But Brat had his own channels of communication: Talk radio (Glenn Beck, Rush and Laura Ingraham), social media and the beehive-like Tea Party grassroots network.

 

The reason big money always beat less money is that money got information to voters. In today’s world, voters – especially interested, involved voters – have lots of ways to get information on their own. And they seem to have less trust in the old ways, like TV ads and direct mail. Especially negative messages.

 

You saw that in North Carolina’s primaries: Robin Hudson’s ability to survive a negative TV assault and Clay Aiken’s victory despite being outspent 2-1.

 

We’ve got smart phones and smart cars. Why not smart voters? 

http://www.talkingaboutpolitics.com

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June 12, 2014 at 10:28 am
Norm Kelly says:

Smart voters are a good thing. Low-information voters gave us the current occupier. Twice. It wasn't bad enough that low-information voters came out in force the first time. It was depressing that so many low-information voters showed up at the polls a second time. I honestly believe that since the occupier was re-elected, a large number of people have chosen to leave the low-information, demon party base, and move into the educated, higher-information voter. Perhaps using alternative methods to get out information will help the right people win.

But there may be other good news. Cuz even if pols like K start to wise up & use 'new media' outlets to get her message out, it's still likely that a large enough number of people will educate themselves AROUND the new-media tactics that mirror the old media tactics. Just because a pol chooses to use new media to spread 'information' doesn't mean that those trying to educate themselves will fall for it. Cuz it seems obvious that if someone is taking the time & effort to seek out other sources of information, they have decided that they will actually do research. Even stupid tweets these days are countered by educated voters. And anyone who subscribes to that particular hash tag will see the intelligent rebuttal, providing truth about the situation.

Alternative methods of information gathering, truth finding, are available. This bodes poorly for the general pol in the demon party. The more people learn about socialism, the more people learn about central planners, the less likely people are to accept it as a viable alternative. No other nation has succeeded like the US has. Because of natural resources? Because of good weather? Because cowboys opened the west for development? Yes to all of these, but it was/is so much more. Freedom is the start. The rule of law, until the current occupier, has made a major difference between US and other nations. Private property rights has done a great deal to encourage risk-taking by average Americans. Knowing that the central planners weren't working AGAINST the people helped. Expecting that the full force of the central planners wasn't geared against you is important. Using the IRS to target political enemies is destructive to imagination and risk-taking. Using the NLRB to prevent a PRIVATE business from building a new facility, hiring more employees, paying additional taxes in a new state is destructive and has the effect of stifling business expansion for fear of being targeted by the central planners.

As more people choose to avoid the old media and seek out the truth, more people will go to the polls with knowledge of who is supporting freedom, who is working to maintain balance in the central government, who is working toward freedom for ALL American citizens, who is trying to protect our nation for the future. Educated voters will soon realize that the demoncrat party is doing none of this. The 'plans' of the socialist democrat party of this nation is destructive to the freedoms that have made us a great nation. The 'plans' of the socialist central planners in the demon party are destructive to our ability to be a force for GOOD in the world. The future as envisioned by the socialists that have taken over the DemocRAT party is a scary future, with little room for innovation and risk-taking. Everyone will be equal. History around the world has shown that it WON'T be equally well-off, it will be equally held down, held back, scared to make a move for ourselves.

I can only hope that the author of this post is looking forward to being part of the education process and not a part of the propaganda wing of the socialist party. Freedom is power. Education is power.

June 13, 2014 at 1:14 pm
Richard Bunce says:

Money does not vote, TV ads do not vote, people vote. So no can everybody quit complaining about Citizens United and stop trying to have government limit speech? Perhaps these voters were tired of a candidate talking about being for smaller government and then going to Congress and making the government bigger. I know I am.