Scary numbers

Published November 20, 2013

by Gary Pearce, Talking About Politics, November 19, 2013.

This poll might make Democrats wonder if Obamacare’s problems go way beyond the botched rollout, broken promise and bug-filled website.

The Gallup Poll says that, by 56-42, Americans believer it is NOT the federal government’s responsibility “to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage.”

Now, take this with a caveat. Gallup’s polls famously flopped in 2012. In late October, Gallup had Romney leading among likely voters by six points. Its last poll had Romney up 1. You might recall that he, in fact, lost by almost 3 points.

But if Gallup’s health-care numbers – and the trend – are near right, Democrats have to ask: Is this health-care thing just something the public doesn’t want to do – period?

Before 2009, Gallup says, “a clear majority of Americans consistently had said the government should take responsibility for ensuring that all Americans have healthcare.” As late as 2006, 69 percent of adults agreed with that proposition, and only 28 percent disagreed. But support has been dropping since – to 54 percent in 2008, 47 in 2009, 44 last year and 42 today.

As you might expect, there has been a huge change among Republicans. In 2000, 42 percent said health care should be the federal government’s responsibility, and 53 said it shouldn’t. Today, only 12 percent say it should and 86 percent say not.

Independents have swung hard, too. Today, 55 percent of independents say the government should not be involved with healthcare. That’s up from 27 percent in 2000.

Even among Democrats, 30 percent oppose a federal role. It was 11 percent in 2000.

Gallup doesn’t offer any insight into why this happened. How much is a reaction to tough economic times? How much is polarization over Obama? Is race – as in the “welfare queen” syndrome – a factor? Is it the Obamacare headlines?

Deeper research is needed. One question in one poll can be misleading. But Democrats need to heed the wake-up call.