Polls show Democrats in strong position. What could go wrong?

by Thomas Mills, Politics, NC, October 17, 2017.

A new CNN poll shows the political environment getting tougher for Republicans as we head into the final months of 2017. On the generic ballot, Democrats hold a 51% to 37% advantage. Donald Trump is underwater by 20 points with only 37% approving of the way he’s handling the presidency and 57% disapproving. CNN’s headline says Trump’s approval is holding steady, so we can assume that a little more than a third of the population will support him no matter what.

I’m skeptical, though. The poll shows that the Democratic lead in the generic ballot is based on a unified party in opposition of Republicans. According the poll, 98% of self-identified Democrats say they prefer a Democrat to represent them in Congress while only 88% of Republicans want a Republican. That may be true now, but I’m not sure Democrats are that loyal to their party.

Both parties are a mess. They’re both rife with infighting, but Republicans seem to stick together much better than Democrats. Donald Trump won the election because Republicans who didn’t like or approve of him still voted for him. On the Democratic side, enough Democrats either stayed home or voted third party to hand the presidency to the Republicans. We saw the same thing happen in 2000 when enough of the Democrats’ left flank chose Ralph Nader over Al Gore.

Midterms are dramatically different than presidential elections. Far fewer people vote in off-years and the ones that do tend to be more loyal to their parties. That may hold Democrats together. However, the infighting among Democrats is fierce. The left flank wants a much more aggressive agenda including single-payer healthcare, a $15 minimum wage, and free college tuition. The centrist, establishment wing would prefer more incremental changes including working to fix Obamacare and a focus on infrastructure projects.

Two scenarios could change the numbers in those polls. Democrats could follow the Tea Party’s example and nominate candidates who are out of sync with their districts. Democrats held the Senate in 2010 and 2012 because the GOP nominated people like Todd (Legitimate rape) Akin and Christine (I dabbled into witchcraft) O’Donnell. To take back Congress, Democrats will need to win in some relatively conservative districts and states and their nominees need to reflect that.

The other scenario is Democrats staying home. If Democrats nominate centrist candidates, will the base that’s demanding a more progressive agenda support them? Those candidates will need to aggressively reach out to their base and the base will need to actively support candidates with whom they may differ on substantial policy issues. Both sides will need to recognize the need for a big tent.

All that said, the Democrats are in a strong position heading into the 2018 election cycle. Donald Trump doesn’t seem to be moderating his behavior and Republicans haven’t found the key to reeling him in. The GOP-controlled Congress has accomplished very little and their tax reform proposal may hurt them more than help them. Still, Democrats need to stay united and set aside their differences until they have a real reason, not a hypothetical one, to fight. Until they control some branch of government, the infighting is an exercise in futility.

http://www.politicsnc.com/polls-show-democrats-in-a-strong-position-what-could-go-wrong/