Political extremism and 2024
Published 4:38 p.m. Thursday
It seems to me that North Carolina political commentators have produced fewer retrospectives on the 2024 election that have seen from past cycles. This is really interesting because 2024 delivered a real departure from what had become fairly longstanding trends in the state. To wit: Democrats won a large number of highly competitive races. It's fruitful to examine the dynamics of this shift.
Let’s review. Democrats did very well across the board in our state last year. They won every marquee race on the statewide ballot: governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, superintendent of public instruction, and state Supreme Court. The only major races they lost were for the State Auditor and Treasurer offices, where they faced tremendous fundraising disadvantages against Republican opponents with extreme personal wealth. This broad success was starkly different from anything Democrats had enjoyed since 2008.
The greatest reason for their victories was superior candidate quality. But I think that factor can easily be misinterpreted. Republicans ran extremist candidates for every one of the offices Democrats won. The sole Republican candidate who was not vocally MAGA, Brad Briner, won his race. That doesn’t show, however, that the Democratic wins were somehow outliers or that the party’s success was somehow less meaningful. Democrats like Josh Stein, Jeff Jackson, Rachel Hunt and Mo Green soundly defeated people who represented the essence of N.C. Republican politics.
The NCGOP nominated most of these MAGA candidates by clear margins - even, in the case of Michelle Morrow, by deposing a sitting Republican officeholder. Some observers lamented that the establishment failed to stop Mark Robinson, but that is a pipedream. It also conflicts with the facts. Thom Tillis and Paul Shumaker felt strongly enough about the need to stop Robinson that they talked Bill Graham into spending $5 million on a longshot primary campaign. The NCGOP is plainly Mark Robinson’s, Michelle Morrow’s, and Dan Bishop’s party now. If you have any doubt that even most elite N.C. Republicans believe in MAGA, consider that top Republicans muscled Tom Murry (a mainstream and rather boring Wake County Republican) out of the AG’s race to anoint Dan Bishop instead.
As my friend Mac McCorkle told the New York Times, the NCGOP is the most MAGA state party in the country. At this point, Thom Tillis is the only real holdout from the complete destruction of the vestigial Martin-Holshouser wing of the party. What Democrats beat in 2024 is what Republicans are likely to offer in future election cycles. That implies that our state should continue to get more purple.
Let’s review. Democrats did very well across the board in our state last year. They won every marquee race on the statewide ballot: governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, superintendent of public instruction, and state Supreme Court. The only major races they lost were for the State Auditor and Treasurer offices, where they faced tremendous fundraising disadvantages against Republican opponents with extreme personal wealth. This broad success was starkly different from anything Democrats had enjoyed since 2008.
The greatest reason for their victories was superior candidate quality. But I think that factor can easily be misinterpreted. Republicans ran extremist candidates for every one of the offices Democrats won. The sole Republican candidate who was not vocally MAGA, Brad Briner, won his race. That doesn’t show, however, that the Democratic wins were somehow outliers or that the party’s success was somehow less meaningful. Democrats like Josh Stein, Jeff Jackson, Rachel Hunt and Mo Green soundly defeated people who represented the essence of N.C. Republican politics.
The NCGOP nominated most of these MAGA candidates by clear margins - even, in the case of Michelle Morrow, by deposing a sitting Republican officeholder. Some observers lamented that the establishment failed to stop Mark Robinson, but that is a pipedream. It also conflicts with the facts. Thom Tillis and Paul Shumaker felt strongly enough about the need to stop Robinson that they talked Bill Graham into spending $5 million on a longshot primary campaign. The NCGOP is plainly Mark Robinson’s, Michelle Morrow’s, and Dan Bishop’s party now. If you have any doubt that even most elite N.C. Republicans believe in MAGA, consider that top Republicans muscled Tom Murry (a mainstream and rather boring Wake County Republican) out of the AG’s race to anoint Dan Bishop instead.
As my friend Mac McCorkle told the New York Times, the NCGOP is the most MAGA state party in the country. At this point, Thom Tillis is the only real holdout from the complete destruction of the vestigial Martin-Holshouser wing of the party. What Democrats beat in 2024 is what Republicans are likely to offer in future election cycles. That implies that our state should continue to get more purple.
Alexander H. Jones is a Policy Analyst with Carolina Forward. He lives in Carrboro. Have feedback? Reach him at alex@carolinaforward.org.
