North Carolina Presidential Race Remains Close

In a new High Point University Poll (released October 22nd), North Carolina voters remain deeply divided in the presidential race, making the campaign a toss-up here in the state.

In the presidential race, Kamala Harris receives 47% of the vote from all North Carolina registered voters while Donald Trump gets 46%.

Early voting began in North Carolina on October 17, as this poll entered the field, and among those voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Trump leads by 2 points, 50% to 48%. Among those who say they are 100% certain they will vote, Trump also leads by 2, 49% to 47%. Those who say they will probably vote – 13% of all registered voters – prefer Harris by a 15-point margin, 53% to 38%. Two months ago, the "certain" vote narrowly favored Harris and probable voters preferred Trump by a 10-point margin.

Trump leads by 7 points among men; Harris leads by 8 among women – a 15-point gender gap. Younger voters narrowly prefer Harris, 47% to 46%; those 35 to 49 give Harris a 5-point edge, 48% to 43%. Voters aged 50 to 64 are split, 46% for Trump, 46% for Harris; those 65+ prefer Trump by 4 points, 50% to 46%. Trump leads by 24 points among white voters, but by 29 points among white men and by 18 points among white women. Harris leads by 62 points among Black voters, but by 55 points among Black men and by 68 points among Black women. Among Latinos, Harris leads by 23 points.

On the issues, a plurality of voters, 28%, say inflation is the most important issue determining their vote this year; among those voters, Trump leads by a 22-point margin, 57% to 35%. Immigration is the next most-selected issue at 14%, and those voters also prefer Trump, but by a much wider 79-point margin. Those citing threats to democracy as most important, 13% of registered voters, strongly prefer Harris, 77% to 19%, as do the 8% most-focused on abortion (a 61-point margin for Harris) and the 6% who say health care is their most important issue, where Harris has a 49-point advantage.

Regionally, Trump has a 25-point lead in the Western part of the state, using regional breakdowns based on respondents' zip codes, and a 21-point lead among those voters who say they live in the Mountains. Those with zip codes placing them in Southern and Coastal NC also prefer Trump, but by a smaller, 6-point margin. Those with zip codes in the Greensboro area are evenly split, 46% Trump, 46% Harris; those with Charlotte-area zips narrowly prefer Harris, by 2 points; those with Raleigh-area zips prefer her by 6 points. Meanwhile, voters who tell SurveyUSA they live in the Coastal Plain prefer Harris by 7 points, and those who say they live in the Piedmont give a nominal single-point edge to Harris.

Voters were asked, regardless of which candidate they supported, which one each of these phrases fits best:
Trump has the advantage on these phrases, ranked from highest to lowest advantage:

• Will stand up to America's enemies. +13 for Trump, with 50% saying this better describes him, 37% Harris.
• Takes action rather than just talking. +6 for Trump, down from +10 in August's polling.
• Strong leader: +5 for Trump, down from +8 in August.
• Understands the economy: +5 for Trump, down 7 points from +12 in the previous poll.

Harris has the advantage on these phrases:

• Has middle-class values: +17 for Harris, up from +12.
• Willing to work with the other party: +11 for Harris, down one point from the previous poll.
• Honest and truthful: +8, unchanged.
• Cares about people like me, +8, up from +4 in August.
• Represents positive change for the country: +6; not previously asked.
• Has the right temperament to be president: +6, down from +11.
• Smart: +3, up a point from +2 in August.
• Good judgement in a crisis: +2, a switch: in August, Trump had a 3-point advantage on this topic.

Voters were then asked which candidate would do a better job on each of these issues:
Trump leads in these areas:

• Immigration: 12 points, 52% to 40%.
• National security: a 9-point advantage, 50% to 41%.
• Crime: 8 points, 49% to 41%.
• Threats to democracy: 7 points, 48% to 41%.
• Inflation: a 6-point advantage, 48% to 42%.
• Support for veterans: 2 points, 46% to 44%.
• Federal taxes: 1 point, 45% to 44%.
• Government response to the effects of Hurricane Helene: 1 point, 44% to 43%.

Harris leads in these:

• LGBTQ policies: a 25-point advantage for Harris, 52% to 27%.
• Abortion: 16 points, 52% to 36%.
• Climate change: 13 points, 47% to 34%.
• Health care: 11 points, 50% to 39%.
• Education: 10 points, 49% to 39%.
• Workers' rights: 7 points, 49% to 42%.

The race for governor looks nothing like the couldn't-be-closer race for President: Democrat Josh Stein defeats Republican Mark Robinson by a 16-point margin today, 50% to 34% among all registered voters, with 15% saying they are undecided – and those undecided voters are overwhelmingly not Democrats. 25% of independents and 16% of Republicans are undecided here, compared to just 6% of Democrats. 87% of those voting for Kamala Harris for President say they will also vote for Josh Stein for Governor; just 69% of those voting for Donald Trump say they will vote for Robinson, with 16% crossing over to vote for the Democrat, 1% voting for another candidate, and 15% saying they are undecided. Two months ago, Stein led by 14.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% of North Carolina registered voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their Congressional District while 43% say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their district.

Three out of five (60%) registered voters in North Carolina say the country is on the wrong track compared to 27% of those same voters who say the country is headed in the right direction.

Confidence is increasing that votes will be counted accurately this year: 38% have a lot of confidence and 43% have some confidence the 2024 election results will accurately reflect the votes that are cast; 13% have no confidence. In August, 36% had a lot of confidence, 40% some confidence; 17% had none.

Election-related violence is a concern. 26% of registered voters say they are very concerned there will be violence after votes are counted this year, including almost half, 48%, of very liberal voters. 44% of voters say they are somewhat concerned. 18% say they are not very concerned; 7% aren't concerned at all.

Roughly half of voters know someone who suffered losses from Hurricane Helene, with 11% saying they themselves suffered losses, 32% saying someone they know did, and 5% saying both they themselves and someone they know had losses. 49% say they do not know anyone who has. While 55% who say they live in the Coastal Plain and 49% of those who say they live in the Piedmont area say they do not know anyone who suffered a loss, just 29% of those who say they live in the Mountains can say the same.

43% say the government response to damage caused by Helene will be very important in determining their vote; another 32% say it will be somewhat important. 12% say it won't be very important, 8% say it won't be important at all.

35% say the damage caused by the hurricane will affect the results of the 2024 elections a lot; 47% say the damage will have some effect; 18% expect they won't have much effect at all.

Finally, on foreign affairs, 46% say it would be best for the future of the country if the US plays an active part in foreign affairs, up slightly from 44% in August. 34% say it would be best to mostly stay out of foreign affairs, down slightly from 37% this summer. 20% aren't sure.

Results, including crosstabulations with results for self-identified registered and likely voters, are available here.

HPU Poll 107 is an online survey sponsored by the High Point University Survey Research Center on Oct. 17-20, and contracted through SurveyUSA using panels of respondents recruited and maintained by Lucid Holdings, LLC. SurveyUSA managed data collection and Lucid Holdings, LLC. sent invitations to its panels of North Carolina adult respondents and collected 1,164 total registered voter responses. The online samples are from panels of respondents, and their participation does not adhere to usual assumptions associated with random selection. Therefore, it is not appropriate to assign a classic margin of sampling error for the results. In this case, the SRC provides credibility intervals of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the registered voter sample to account for a traditional 95% confidence interval. 

Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past surveys can be found at the Survey Research Center website. Materials online include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings (including approval ratings) for each poll since 2010.

The HPU Poll reports methodological details in accordance with the standards set out by AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, and the HPU Survey Research Center is a Charter Member of the Initiative.

Dr. Martin Kifer, chair and professor of political science, serves as the director of the HPU Poll.