North Carolina after "Super Tuesday"

by Tom Campbell, Executive Producer and Moderator, NC SPIN, March 3, 2016.

Following “Super Tuesday,” both political parties are wondering how they can survive their nominees, while North Carolinians are pondering the impact on our state.

The presidential races have turned into a referendum on outsiders. The numbers don’t lie. Swarms of Republicans have turned out in impressive and increasing numbers. Both Trump and the masses voting for him are running away from mainstream Republican positions.

National GOP leaders are in panic mode, not just worried that Trump will win the nomination, lose the White House and possibly their majority in the U.S. Senate. What has them really frightened is that 2016 might signal the death of the GOP. Donald’s largely white, middle class coalition is both deep and wide. It has no loyalty to party, feels disenfranchised and is fed up with Washington politicians.

Even though many are unwilling to admit it, Democrats have their own problems. A red flag warning is that Democratic primary turnout is significantly down from 2008. Hillary Clinton was supposedly on a cakewalk to the nomination but, aside from African Americans, party faithful appear uninspired. A growing number are concerned she is too closely connected with Obama and the establishment. Bernie Sanders, though he has served in Congress many years, is capturing a large faction of mostly young and women voters with his message of a revolution against Wall Street, the wealthy and political PACs, swelling his treasury with millions from small donations. If you subtract “super delegates,” originally created so no nominee would take the party too far off the reservation, Hillary and Bernie are running close. Party leaders question whether Clinton has too much baggage to win the presidency but can’t see Bernie winning either.

Here in The Old North State party leaders and candidates are worried about who and how many will turn out on March 15^th. The decision to combine the presidential primary with statewide primary elections was obviously a huge mistake. Further, the state GOP decision to award convention delegates based on proportional, rather than winner-take-all outcomes, almost assures we won’t get much attention. Trump has a big lead and Rubio and Kasich will devote their efforts to their home states. Understanding that second place finishes won’t win him the nomination, Florida is a must-win state for Rubio. If Kasich doesn’t win Ohio he is toast, so he will spend his dollars and time there. Cruz will go for broke with winner-take-all states.

With such a large percentage of African American voters (about 92 percent) who vote for Clinton, Sanders will also focus on winner-take-all states. Hillary will take a victory here for granted. Our state won’t be much of a factor in determining nomination outcomes.

There are some very important elections that deserve our attention and consideration, to include the important Connect NC bond referendum, but with all the focus on the presidential contests and recent court decisions, state and local candidates have had big problems raising money, translating to an inability to purchase TV and radio, direct mail and social media sufficiently to excite supporters and get their message to voters. Analysts are adjusting March 15th turnout predictions downward.

The chaos and theatrics are unsettling, a bad sign for the parties, the candidates and the whole electoral process. Only time will tell how this plays out.