NC Senate race remains a toss-up

Four weeks out from primary day, the Republican race for Senate in North Carolina continues to look like it's headed for a runoff. Thom Tillis leads the GOP field with 18% to 15% for Greg Brannon, 11% for Mark Harris, 7% for Heather Grant, 6% for Ted Alexander, 5% for Alex Bradshaw, 2% for Jim Snyder, and 1% for Edward Kryn. 34% of voters remain undecided and Tillis will probably have to win most of them in order to get to the 40% mark needed to avoid a runoff.

Tillis' small lead comes in spite of having far greater name recognition than the rest of the Republican field. 60% of voters know enough about him to have formed an opinion compared to 31% for Brannon and 30% for Harris, the other serious Republican contenders at this point. Tillis and Harris have both seen their support increase 4 points from a month ago, while Brannon has gained just one point.

“The Republican primary race is still pretty wide open with less than a month to go until the election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Thom Tillis just hasn’t been able to break away from the pack.”

The general election story is the same as it's been for six months now- Kay Hagan has negative approval numbers and finds herself within the margin of error against all of her potential Republican opponents. 41% of voters approve of the job Hagan's doing to 48% who disapprove, pretty much what we've found ever since ads started attacking her over Obamacare in October.

She trails most of her Republicans opponents by small margins- it's 44/40 against Mark Harris, 43/39 against Heather Grant, 42/40 against Greg Brannon, 41/40 against Edward Kryn, 42/41 against Alex Bradshaw, and 43/42 against Ted Alexander. Hagan does tie Jim Snyder at 41, and the one Republican who she actually leads is her most likely opponent- she has a slim 43/41 edge over Thom Tillis. In Tillis' case being well known is not necessarily a positive thing- his time at the helm of an unpopular legislature has left him with a 20/39 favorability rating.

PPP surveyed 740 registered voters from April 3rd to 6th, including 314 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.6%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.5%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/north-carolina-senate-race-remains-a-toss-up.html#more