What if people began to move back to North Carolina’s small towns and rural areas? What if they started family farms, the kind people have been leaving for decades?
What if those people were immigrants?
North Carolina is a prosperous, fast-growing state, but some trends cause concern.
One is that, despite a rising population overall, nearly half of North Carolina counties have lost residents since 2010.
In addition, the state’s population is aging. In 1970, 39 percent of North Carolina residents were younger than 20, while only 8 percent were 65 or older, according to Rebecca Tippett of Carolina Demography. In 2015, those numbers were 26 percent and 15 percent. And by 2035, they’re expected to be 23 percent and 21 percent.
Natural increase — the number of births over deaths within the state — is not the cause of most of our population growth. The rate of natural increase is slowing over time.
Rather, most of our growth comes from net migration. More people move into North Carolina than move out, and they come from other states and other countries. This is a key to North Carolina’s economic growth.
Migrants from other states, especially those who are well-educated and coming for good jobs, tend to concentrate in Charlotte and the Triangle, which together account for close to one-fourth of the state’s population.
The greatest number of migrants come from New York state, then Virginia, then Mexico, according to Tippett. The Pew Research Center recently released findings of a study that said the nation’s working-age population would decrease by 2035 if not for immigrants.
President Donald Trump promises dramatically faster economic growth for the country under his policies. Many forecasters are skeptical because rapid economic growth depends on a significant expansion of our workforce — and trends aren’t pointing in that direction.
North Carolina’s strong in-migration from other states may protect our growth for a little longer, but it won’t reverse the aging of our population. Some of our newcomers move here to retire and raise the average age.
But immigrants tend to be younger and to have more children. Nineteen percent of children in North Carolina younger than 18 have one or more foreign-born parent, compared to 9 percent in 2000, according to the private N.C. Budget and Tax Center.
Some of the parents of those children may be here illegally and are subject to deportation. If they are expelled, the children — even if they’re U.S. citizens — are likely to go with them. That will cost the state needed future workers in manufacturing, health care, maintenance, construction, service industries and more.
The U.S. must reform its immigration policies so it can legally admit more talented people who can make significant contributions to our national life. It also must provide a pathway to legal status and citizenship for people who may have entered the country without authorization or overstayed visas but settled into lawful, productive lives. They, and especially their children, may be important to our future.
We can’t say there’s no room for them when so many communities are in decline.
