More election analysis from NC SPIN panelists

Reactions from Joe Mavretic, Cash Michaels and Becki Gray, Wednesday, November 7, 2018.

From Becki Gray, John Locke Foundation and NC SPIN panelist.                                                          Not a referendum on either party but a trend in demographics – urban areas are becoming more democratic and rural areas getting redder. As the urban rural divide becomes more partisan, it will be harder to reach consensus on things like distribution of sales tax, road and infrastructure and education funding.

Money matters but only to a certain point.  In spite of being outspent, in some cases by outside money. Nineteen house members were outraised but won. Mark Harris and Ted Budd won in spite of their opponents rasing more money. We’ll know more when final financial reports are submitted, the impact of money and who it helped and where it came from but what we know now is the amount of money raised and spent set records.

We remain a divided state.  Democrats outperformed predictions of a total gain of 11 seats in a mid-term election but not by a lot. And Republicans picked up a couple of seats. A big blue wave did not materialize. And Republicans were able to hold their own.

Republicans keep the majority but not the supermajority. Roy Cooper’s veto now means something.  Will there be main street democrats willing to vote with Republicans on some issues as there were in 2011-2013?  Will Republicans force votes and a veto on issues that are important to voters in the 2020 election?

The most important result may be the courts. Democrats invested heavily and won. The NC Supreme Court is now in democrats’ hands with a majority of 5-2 and the Court of Appeals went from 5 Democrats; 10 Republicans to 7 Democrats; 8 Republicans. Lawsuits challenging the General Assembly’s actions will only increase with a greater chance of being overturned.

From Cash Michaels, Award winning journalist, filmmaker and NC SPIN panelist.                           The 2028 midterm elections , both nationally and statewide, have made it extremely clear that the social and political divisions that we feared were evident in our state and nation, are even deeper than even we thought. The president has flexed his considerable muscle to consolidate power, and the Republican Party is in lockstep with him.

Meanwhile the Democratic coalition that formed to push back against Trump and the GOP is seeing a light at the end of the tunnel now that they have claimed the US House, and have ended the legislature’s GOP veto-proof supermajority. Now, for this group and their supporters, the 2020 presidential elections couldn’t come fast enough.

But there is certainly a lot of time between now and 2020 (though one could easily argue that that campaign actually started before the 2018 midterm elections as far as Trump is concerned.

There are invaluable lessons from the 2018 elections for both sides.

Republicans have learned that their quest for power will NOT go unanswered, and that the Democratic coalition is not squeamish about stopping them at any costs. What is evident, though, is that Republicans have absolutely no idea how far their ride following Trump will take them, or the nation, but are willing to gamble in hopes that the American people, and consequently North Carolinians, want the Trump/GOP agenda.

The Democratic coalition (which is primarily progressive) has learned that the anger and outrage at the Trump/GOP policies was potent enough to turn out their base voters, but that coalition will need more than that to be truly successful in 2020 when congressional seats, the governor’s office, and the presidency are on the ballot.

Yes, opposing Trump is plenty, but who knows what condition the economy will be in, or where racial tensions in the nation will be, or if we are in another war? And Democrats in Congress have to be very careful not to preoccupy their time just going after Trump, but fostering sound policy ideas that the American people and North Carolinians want to hear and see. They most likely won’t pass because Republicans are still a force to be reckoned with in Congress and the legislature, but building a strong policy portfolio for the 2020 campaign on improving Obamacare (health care was the Number One issue in many 2018 midterm polls), protecting and manifesting current job growth, and improving infrastructure (roads, bridges, etc) across the nation, would show that Democrats are seeking to prove that they deserve to govern again.

And that’s why the results of the 2018 midterms should clearly inform the Democratic coalition as to whom should be their 2020 presidential standardbearer should be. But THAT’s another column!

From Joe Mavretic, former House Speaker and NC SPIN panelist.                                                    There are lots of take-aways from the 2018 mid-term election.                                                                        

First…there was no Blue Wave! It was a typical off-year election..just a few surprises here and there.

There was the continuing increase of women in elected office which is part of the trend toward a matriarchal society. At the national level, the House majority of Social Democrats will advocate more central government sponsored/funded programs that will not be considered by a Conservative Senate. A US Senate, with more Republicans, can make a move toward a more conservative US Supreme Court easier. The national debt will continue to rise. North Carolina Congressmen will enjoy increased influence, particularly David Price, in spite of our NC delegations' composition.  Gridlock in Congress will enable the president to pursue his agenda through executive orders.

In North Carolina, our  Supreme Court becomes more liberal which is a plus for the Governor and Attorney General. A Social Democratic NC House eliminates the veto-proof override but encourages more subtle political maneuvers/tactics by our Conservative Senate. We will probably witness more vetos, more second-effort budget shenanigans, and more "Court Legislation."

Much of the political efforts in 2019-2020 will be to establish campaign issues for the 2020 elections. Solutions to critical problems will be neglected but studied.

The Libertarian Party continues to have little influence on issues but erodes Republican votes.

In urban contests, the Independent (Unaffiliated) vote has become the key to most elections, and, with court-mandated redistricting changes, will increase in importance. Independent voters may start to be considered as a balance on political boards and commissions.

Overall, in Washington and North Carolina, compromise became more expensive.

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