McCrory grapples with biggest reelection roadblocks: Republican legislators

By Karyn Bruggeman, published in National Journal, May 7, 2015.

North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory is readying for one of the most competitive gubernatorial races of 2016, and two years into his first term, McCrory is still trying to smooth over his greatest vulnerability: not his Democratic opponent, but his rocky relationship with conservatives in the North Carolina legislature.

McCrory is a moderate Republican and former mayor of Charlotte, and when he took office in 2013, he was steamrolled by conservative leaders in the legislature eager to push their agenda after spending decades in the minority. While there's some evidence the relationship is better now, the headache hasn't totally gone away, and it could leave an opening for Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, his likely opponent.

Just as conservative legislation and intra-Republican fights in Raleigh threatened Republican Thom Tillis's Senate run in 2014, they could hamper McCrory next year. The Raleigh News & Observer recently predicted: "How well McCrory navigates the General Assembly will dictate how much of his agenda he can accomplish—and position himself for reelection in 2016."

This is not a new issue for the governor. In 2013, before McCrory had time to fully lay out his agenda or even staff up the governor's office, Republican legislators passed a series of restrictions on voting rights and abortion, and they made cuts to education and unemployment benefits that sparked passionate protests and attracted national attention. More than 40 percent of Democratic TV ads in last year's Senate race focused on education after those cuts; for a time, it looked like they would cost Tillis the race. McCrory's approval rating has fallen toward the legislature's low rating in that time, too.

The abortion measure would triple the required wait period for women seeking abortions from 24 to 72 hours. Wait periods are not uncommon, but the length of this one would be unusual. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, 26 states have wait period requirements, but only three states enforce a 72-hour wait period. The bill already passed through the state House and is expected to come up for a vote in the Senate in the coming days or weeks.

McCrory won't say whether he plans to veto the bill. He has generally proven unwilling to veto legislation he disagrees with, instead opting to let items become law without his signature.

During his time as governor, McCrory has often been forced to fall in line behind the agenda of Republican legislators (instead of the other way around) or risk alienating himself from more conservative members of his own party. But there have been noticeable changes for McCrory during this year's legislative session relative to years past, which could offer evidence that he's exerting more influence as he's gained experience—and the 2016 election draws closer.

Some see this as a change in strategy on McCrory's part. He's been voicing his opinion on controversial measures earlier in the legislative process, and has been more active in trying to shape outcomes by attending committee hearings and inviting lawmakers to meet with him.

McCrory supporters are eager to give the governor credit for these less tumultuous times. Even if the abortion bill becomes law, it appears to be one of few controversial measures that might make it out of session, relative to the cascade of controversy that reigned down two years ago. "He's working the political side of this job as good as I've seen him work it since he got in office," former McCrory strategist Chris Sinclair said. "He's found his sea legs."