Is Tillis more talented than we think?
Published 12:20 p.m. Thursday
Thom Tillis looks much stronger today than he did three months ago. At least for now, he appears to have neutralized the most virulent MAGA discontent. A primary challenge may be averted. Tillis’ chance of fending off Roy Cooper is far from hopeless.
With this improvement in his standing has come a reassessment of Tillis’ political talent. Observers in North Carolina long considered the senator to be a mediocrity, blessed by (arguably unearned) brute good luck. But some analysts are beginning to question this dismissive assessment.
Tillis is, after all, a two-term senator, and in this hyper-competitive state, that kind of political success is probably not accidental. Perhaps Tillis has a political skillset that his rather unlikable personality has caused many people to overlook.
This analysis is plausible, but I would only take it so far. Tillis did get extraordinarily lucky in both of his bids for U.S. Senate. I believe that Kay Hagan would have defeated him by at least a point or two in 2014 if the political environment hadn’t collapsed for her. Tillis may have won in 2020 regardless — but it didn’t hurt that he ran against a “Junior Varsity” John Edwards.
Tillis’ winning campaigns have reflected the strategic mind of his political consultant Paul Shumaker, with minimal drama allowing him to win victories similar to Shumaker’s other client, Richard Burr.
Still. Shumaker is not a political warlock blessing mediocrities with the wiles of political magic. The evidence: Pat McCrory, the worst North Carolina governor since the white-supremacist “Simmons Machine” of the early 20th century, failed to defeat an unknown right-wing congressman despite benefiting from Shumaker’s wise counsel.
Tillis has the political skill to make use of Shumaker’s talents. He maintains discipline — a Burr-like quality of which McCrory was utterly incapable. Like George W. Bush in the 2000 election, Tillis uses resolute message discipline to keep his campaign on course with the hope (twice fulfilled) that his opponent will falter.
Tillis, in other words, has run solid enough campaigns to keep his liabilities from preventing him from losing winnable races. Tillis is arrogant, but he seems to have some awareness of the fact that he is not a beloved figure. As a result, he has become adept at defensive politics. He minimizes his weaknesses just well enough to present himself as an “electable-enough” conservative Republican, tolerable to a center-right state even though he is unlovable.
It’s more impressive than you think, and it’s why a third term for Tillis, as frustrating as that would be, is hardly out of the question.
Alexander H. Jones is a policy analyst with Carolina Forward. He lives in Carrboro. Have feedback? Reach him at alex@carolinaforward.org.
