High Point Poll: Senate race too close to call
Published September 23, 2014
News release by High Point University Poll, September 22, 2014.
The first HPU Poll of the 2014 fall semester finds that the race for U.S. Senate between incumbent Senator Kay Hagan and North Carolina Speaker of the House Thom Tillis is a statistical tie with Hagan receiving support from 42 percent of likely voters and Tillis receiving 40 percent support. A statistical tie means that the survey results are too close to call as they are within the margin of error.
The poll’s findings are in line with what numerous recent surveys have said about the Senate race in North Carolina: it is extremely close and will have an outcome that depends on the extent to which campaigns can turn out their most likely supporters.
The poll also finds that 38 percent of North Carolina likely voters approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance. The new poll places Senators Kay Hagan and Richard Burr’s job performance at 39 and 34 percent approval, respectively. Of all the elected officials in the poll, Gov. Pat McCrory has the highest overall approval rating of 46 percent.
Fully 57 percent of the likely voters interviewed for the survey disapproved of President Obama’s job performance. For Senators Hagan and Burr, those numbers were 50 percent and 31 percent, respectively.
The poll also finds approximately one out of every five (20 percent) of the same respondents believe the country is headed in the right direction versus almost three-quarters (73 percent) of North Carolina’s likely voters who see the country as being on the wrong track. The U.S. Congress fared the worst in job approval, earning the approval of only 10 percent of likely North Carolina voters.
“This U.S. Senate race is very close, and one reason for that is the generally negative outlook North Carolina’s voters have right now,” said Dr. Martin Kifer, assistant professor of political science and the director of the HPU Poll. “This electoral environment will make it more difficult for either candidate to open up a wide lead, and the competitiveness of the race will compound this tendency by continuing to attract extremely high levels of outside spending and negative campaigning.”
Likely voters – Senate race
If the election for United States Senate were held today would you be voting for Republican Thom Tillis, Democrat Kay Hagan, or Libertarian Sean Haugh?
Thom Tillis – 40 percent
Kay Hagan – 42 percent
Sean Haugh – 6 percent
Don’t know/refuse – 12 percent
(North Carolina likely voter sample surveyed September 13 – 18, n = 410 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 5 percent)
Likely voters – Presidential job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Approve – 38 percent
Disapprove – 57 percent
Don’t know/refuse –5 percent
(North Carolina likely voter sample surveyed September 13 – 18, n = 410 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 5 percent)
Likely voters – Senator Hagan job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Kay Hagan is handling her job as United States Senator?
Approve – 39 percent
Disapprove – 50 percent
Don’t know/refuse – 11 percent
(North Carolina likely voter sample surveyed September 13 – 18, n = 410 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 5 percent)
Likely voters – Senator Burr job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Richard Burr is handling his job as United States Senator?
Approve – 34 percent
Disapprove – 31 percent
Don’t know/refuse – 35 percent
(North Carolina likely voter sample surveyed September 13 – 18, n = 410 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 5 percent)
Likely voters – Governor McCrory job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Pat McCrory is handling his job as Governor?
Approve – 46 percent
Disapprove – 43 percent
Don’t know/refuse – 11 percent
(North Carolina likely voter sample surveyed September 13 – 18, n = 410 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 5 percent)
Likely voters – Congress job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the U.S. Congress is handling its job?
Approve – 10 percent
Disapprove – 84 percent
Don’t know/refuse – 6 percent
(North Carolina likely voter sample surveyed September 13 – 18, n = 410 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 5 percent)
Likely voters – Country direction
Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Right direction – 20 percent
Wrong track – 73 percent
Don’t know/refused – 8 percent
(North Carolina likely voter sample surveyed September 13 – 18, n = 410 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 5 percent)
