High Point poll: Senate race a dead heat

by Dr. Martin Kifer, director High Point University Poll, October 27, 2014.

The HPU Poll finds that in North Carolina’s pivotal senate race, Sen. Kay Hagan and Speaker of the House Thom Tillis are tied at 44 percent each when North Carolina likely voters were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today or for whom they had voted if they had already voted in the 2014 senate election.

The poll’s findings are the latest in a series of recent surveys of likely and actual voters in North Carolina that have said the Senate race in North Carolina is extremely close. Its outcome will likely depend on the extent to which campaigns can turn out their supporters.

The poll also finds that 41 percent approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance, while 55 percent disapprove. For Hagan, her approval rating is 42 percent with disapproval at 52 percent. The approval for Tillis is 37 percent while the disapproval is 50 percent.

The poll also finds approximately one quarter (27 percent) of the same respondents believe the country is headed in the right direction versus almost two thirds (67 percent) who see the country as being on the wrong track.

On the so-called Congressional generic ballot—a question about whether voters will vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate within their congressional district—the Republican candidate received 48 percent of likely and actual voter support whereas the Democratic candidate received 43 percent.

Discontent with members of Congress overall was relatively high, as 46 percent of respondents said that if there were an option to vote out all members of Congress, including their own members of Congress, they would. A slightly smaller proportion (43 percent) of the respondents said they would not do so. Eleven percent were unsure what they would do in such a situation.

“We have been saying for a while that this Senate race would come down to the wire. These findings—taken together with the other recent polls—suggest the race remains extremely close,” says Dr. Martin Kifer, assistant professor of political science and the director of the HPU Poll. “We see a relatively large fraction of people who think the country is headed in the wrong direction as well as low approval ratings of Congress, the president and the two candidates. This indicates an electoral environment that has made it more difficult for either candidate to open up a wide lead.”

Likely and actual voters – North Carolina Senate race

If the election for United States Senate were held today would you be voting for (names rotated) Republican Thom Tillis, or Democrat Kay Hagan, or Libertarian Sean Haugh?

Thom Tillis – 44 percent

Kay Hagan – 44 percent

Sean Haugh – 5 percent

Other – 3 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

(North Carolina likely and actual voter sample surveyed between Oct. 21 and 25, n = 802 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 3.5 percent)

Likely and actual voters – Country direction

Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Right direction – 27 percent

Wrong track – 67 percent

Not sure – 6 percent

(North Carolina likely and actual voter sample surveyed between Oct. 21 and 25, n = 802 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 3.3 percent)

Likely and actual voters – Presidential job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Approve – 41 percent

Disapprove – 55 percent

Not sure – 4 percent

(North Carolina likely and actual voter sample surveyed between Oct. 21 and 25, n = 802 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 3.5 percent)

Likely and actual voters – Senator Hagan job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Kay Hagan is handling her job as United States Senator?

Approve – 42 percent

Disapprove – 52 percent

Not sure – 6 percent

(North Carolina likely and actual voter sample surveyed between Oct. 21 and 25, n = 802 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 3.5 percent)

Likely and actual voters – Speaker Tillis job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Thom Tillis is handling his job as Speaker of North Carolina’s House of Representatives?

Approve – 37 percent

Disapprove – 50 percent

Not sure – 13 percent

(North Carolina likely and actual voter sample surveyed between Oct. 21 and 25, n = 802 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 3.5 percent)

Likely and actual voters – Congressional Generic ballot

If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican party’s candidate or the Democratic party’s candidate for Congress in your district?  Or, will you vote for some other party’s candidate?

The Republican party’s candidate – 48 percent

The Democratic party’s candidate – 43 percent

Other – 5 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

(North Carolina likely and actual voter sample surveyed between Oct. 21 and 25, n = 802 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 3.5 percent)

Likely and actual voters – Voting out all members of Congress

In the elections for U.S. Congress, if there were an option to vote out all members of the Congress–including your own members of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senators–would you vote them all out of office?

Yes, would vote them all out – 46 percent

No, would not vote them out – 43 percent

Not sure – 11 percent

(North Carolina likely and actual voter sample surveyed between Oct. 21 and 25, n = 802 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 3.5 percent)

The High Point University Survey Research Center contracted SurveyUSA to interview 862 state of North Carolina registered voters Oct. 21 through Oct. 25, 2014, using Registration Based Sample (aka Voter List Sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington, D.C. To be included in the sample, a voter needed to have voted in both 2010 and 2012, or needed to have newly registered to vote thereafter. Of the 862 registered voters, 802 were determined to be likely to vote or had already voted in person or by absentee ballot in the Nov. 4, 2014 general election. Approximately 10 percent of the respondents said they had already voted. This research was conducted 100 percent by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72 percent of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28 percent of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview, and remained on the phone until the call was completed. Crosstabs of this study are available at http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2014/10/PDF-North-Carolina-Political.pdf.

http://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2014/10/hpu-poll-hagan-and-tillis-still-tied-among-nc-likely-voters/