High Point poll: Presidential race remains close for North Carolina voters

In a new High Point University Poll, North Carolina voters remain deeply divided in the presidential race, making the campaign a toss-up here in North Carolina.

A Tie in the Presidential Campaign

In the presidential race, Republican Donald Trump receives 48% of the vote from North Carolina likely voters while Democrat Kamala Harris also gets 48%.

In the race for North Carolina Governor, Democrat Josh Stein receives 51% of the vote from likely voters while Republican Mark Robinson gets 34%.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, 48% of North Carolina likely voters say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their Congressional District. Meanwhile, 44% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their district.

Ties in North Carolina House and Senate Races

In the North Carolina House of Representatives race, 47% of North Carolina likely voters say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their House District. Meanwhile, 47% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their district.

In the North Carolina Senate race, 47% of North Carolina likely voters say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their Senate District. Meanwhile, 47% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their district.

Results including a memo with results for self-identified registered and likely voters are available here: https://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/106memoPOLS.pdf

HPU Poll 106 was fielded by the High Point University Survey Research Center on Sept. 20 through Sept. 29, as an online survey using a panel of respondents recruited and maintained by Dynata. Dynata sent invitations to its panel of N.C. respondents and the SRC collected 1,001 responses (an all-adults sample) on its Qualtrics platform.

 For the registered voters, the SRC provides a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points to account for a traditional 95% confidence interval for the estimates (plus or minus 3.4 percentage points) and a design effect of 1.1 (based on the weighting). For the likely voter sample, the credibility interval is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (4 for an approximated margin of error and a design effect of 1.5). The all-adults data is weighted toward population estimates for age, gender, race, ethnicity, and education based on U.S. Census numbers for North Carolina. The sample was also weighted using a past presidential vote questionnaire item and the North Carolina 2020 presidential election results