HB2 Deeply unpopular in NC; voters think it is hurting state

PPP's new North Carolina poll finds minimal support from voters in the state for HB 2, and that voters think its passage has hurt the state in several ways.

Just 36% of voters in the state support HB2, to 45% who are opposed. Independent voters are against it 33/46, and Democrats (20/63) are more unified in their opposition to the bill than Republicans (56/24) are in their support. Voters think the bill is having a bad effect on both the state's economy and its overall reputation. 54% think it's had a negative impact on North Carolina's economy, to only 11% who think it's having a positive impact. On that front even GOP voters by a 17 point margin grant that it's having a more negative than positive effect on the state economically. 53% of voters think HB2 has had a negative effect on North Carolina's national reputation, to only 22% who claim they think it's had an overall positive impact on the state's image. Because of these things, just 32% of voters in the state think HB2 is actually helping North Carolina, compared to 53% who think it's hurting the state. Independent voters, by a 53/30 spread, side with Democrats in thinking that HB2 is doing a lot more damage to the state than good.

“There’s very little support for HB2 in North Carolina,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters are opposed to it and they think it’s hurting the state in multiple ways.”

Voters also don't think HB2 is having the positive impact it was purported to have. Only 37% think its passage has made the state safer, to 44% who think it has not. Again on this aspect of the issue independents join with Democrats in saying by a 34/44 spread that it's not making North Carolina safer. A lot of the rhetoric around the bill been about protecting women but they both oppose the bill (33/46) and think it's failing to make the state safer (34/48) by even wider margins than the population as a whole.

Following his signing of HB2 and subsequent defense of the bill, Pat McCrory is trailing Roy Cooper for the first time in 3 months in our polling. Cooper has the advantage with 43% to 42% for McCrory, with Libertarian Lon Cecil at 4%. McCrory led our North Carolina polls in both February and March but has seen his deficit among Democrats grow from 65/16 to 73/14 amid the furor over HB2. One of the reasons McCrory was elected by such a wide margin in 2012 was substantial crossover support from Democrats, and he's lost most of that in the subsequent years. McCrory is under water on his approval rating for the 33rd month in a row, with only 40% of voters approving of the job he's doing to 49% who disapprove. Meanwhile Cooper has seen his favorability numbers rise after refusing to defend HB2- he has a 37/27 favorability rating, up from 33/28 a month ago.

“HB2 may have closed the door on any chance Pat McCrory had of getting most of the Democrats who voted for him in 2012 to vote for him again in 2016,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He just doesn’t have the moderate image that he did 4 years ago anymore.”

The anger over HB2 isn't doing Republicans in the legislature any favors either. Only 30% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of them to 52% who see them negatively. That -22 net favorability rating is 8 points worse than the -14 spread legislative Democrats hold at 32/46. Democrats have a 45/42 advantage on the generic legislative ballot, including 40/34 with independents.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 960 registered voters from April 22nd to 24th. The margin of error is +/-3.2%. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel.

1. Q1  Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat McCrory’s job performance?

   Approve .......................................................... 40%

   Disapprove...................................................... 49%

   Not sure .......................................................... 11%

2. Q2  Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

   of Roy Cooper?

   Favorable ........................................................ 37%

   Unfavorable .................................................... 27%

   Not sure .......................................................... 36%

3. Q3  The candidates for Governor are Republican Pat McCrory, Democrat Roy Cooper, and Libertarian Lon Cecil. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Pat McCrory .................................................... 42%

Roy Cooper..................................................... 43%

Lon Cecil ......................................................... 4%

Undecided....................................................... 11%

4. Q4  The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are Republican Dan Forest, Democrat Linda Coleman, and Libertarian J.J. Summerell. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

   Dan Forest......................................................38%

   Linda Coleman................................................ 37%

   J.J.Summerell................................................ 6%

   Undecided....................................................... 19%

5. Q5  Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democrats in the North Carolina Legislature?

   Favorable ........................................................ 32% Unfavorable .................................................... 46% Not sure .......................................................... 22%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Republicans in the North Carolina Legislature?

Favorable ........................................................ 30%

Unfavorable .................................................... 52%

Not sure .......................................................... 18%

Q7 Generally speaking, if there was an election for the state legislature today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?

Democrat ........................................................ 45%

Republican ...................................................... 42%

Not sure .......................................................... 14% Q8 Do you support or oppose House Bill 2?

Support ........................................................... 36%

Oppose ........................................................... 45%

Not sure .......................................................... 19% Q9 Overall, do you think HB2 is helping or hurting

North Carolina?

HB2 is helping North Carolina......................... 32%

HB2 is hurting North Carolina ......................... 53%

Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q10 Do you think House Bill 2 has had a positive or negative impact on the North Carolina economy, or has it not made a difference?

Positive impact on economy ........................... 11% Negative impact on economy.......................... 54% Has Not Made a Difference............................. 29% Not Sure.......................................................... 6%

North Carolina Survey Results

April 22-24, 2016

Survey of 960 North Carolina voters

11. Q11  Do you think House Bill 2 has had a positive or negative impact on North Carolina’s reputation nationally, or has it not made a difference?

    Positive impact on reputation .......................... 22%

    Negative impact on reputation ........................ 53%

    Has Not Made a Difference............................. 18%

    Not Sure.......................................................... 7%

12. Q12  Do you think House Bill 2 has made North

    Carolina safer, or not?

    HB2 has made North Carolina safer ............... 37%

    HB2 has not made North Carolina safer ......... 44%

    Not sure .......................................................... 19%

13. Q13  In the last presidential election, did you vote for

    Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

    Barack Obama................................................46%

    Mitt Romney.................................................... 46%

    Someone else / Don't remember .................... 8%

14. Q14  Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?

    Very liberal......................................................12%

    Somewhat liberal ............................................ 17%

    Moderate......................................................... 30%

    Somewhat conservative.................................. 22%

    Very conservative ........................................... 19%

15. Q15  If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

    Woman ........................................................... 53% Man................................................................. 47%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ........................................................ 40%

Republican ...................................................... 33%

Independent / Other........................................27% Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African American,

press 2. If other, press 3.

White .............................................................. 74%

African American............................................. 21%

Other............................................................... 5%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29........................................................... 13%

30 to 45........................................................... 28%

46 to 65........................................................... 39%

Older than 65 .................................................. 20% Q19 Area Code

252.................................................................. 11%

336.................................................................. 25%

704.................................................................. 18%

828.................................................................. 11%

910.................................................................. 16%

919.................................................................. 19% Q20 Mode

Phone ............................................................. 80%

Internet ........................................................... 20%