PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis are still neck and neck, but Hagan’s lead has increased by 3 points in the last month due in part to continued voter dissatisfaction with the General Assembly.
Hagan currently leads with 39% of the vote to Tillis’ 34%. In May, PPP found Hagan barely ahead with 38% and Tillis at 36%. Third-party candidate Sean Haugh picks up the same 11% from one month ago. Hagan leads among independents with 31% of the vote, compared to 25% for Tillis and 19% for Haugh. Among every age group except 18 to 29 year olds, Hagan leads Tillis by two points. However, Hagan leads among young voters by a 25-point margin, at 46% to 21%.
One factor contributing to Hagan’s increased lead against Tillis is voters’ negative view of the General Assembly. Only 18% approve of the job the General Assembly is doing, with 54% disapproving. This disapproval partially reflects unhappiness with the recent fracking bill passed by the legislature, as 29% support the measure while 38% oppose it.
Furthermore, while Hagan’s approval rating has improved in the last month, Tillis’ favorability has gotten worse by almost the same margin. In May, Hagan’s approval stood at 38% with 49% disapproving of her performance. However, she now was a 42% approval with 46% disapproval, a net change of 7 points. Tillis’ favorability was at a net of negative 16 points in May (30/46) but is now at negative 22 points (23/45).
“Kay Hagan’s lead over Thom Tillis has tended to grow whenever the legislature is in session,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The question is whether she can sustain any momentum she gets from that after the legislators go home.”
In miscellaneous issues, 58% of North Carolina voters support requiring existing power plants to cut carbon pollution by up to 30%, and 74% would support a bill allowing for the refinancing of old student loans at current rates.
PPP surveyed 1,076 registered voters from June 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.0%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama's job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 41%
Disapprove...................................................... 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 42%
Disapprove...................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable........................................................ 23%
Unfavorable .................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 32%
Q4 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat
Kay Hagan, Republican Thom Tillis, and
Libertarian Sean Haugh. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan...................................................... 39%
Thom Tillis ...................................................... 34%
Sean Haugh.................................................... 11%
Undecided....................................................... 16%
Q5 Horse race with Haugh supporters asked
whether they lean Hagan or Tillis
Kay Hagan...................................................... 42%
Thom Tillis ...................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 20%
Q6 The candidates for one North Carolina
Supreme Court seat this fall are Robin Hudson
and Eric Levinson. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Robin Hudson ................................................. 20%
Eric Levinson .................................................. 15%
Undecided....................................................... 66%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve .......................................................... 18%
Disapprove...................................................... 54%
Not sure .......................................................... 28%
Q8 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ........................................................... 55%
Oppose ........................................................... 34%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%
Q9 Would you support or oppose a bill allowing
students to refinance old student loans that
have high rates at the current lower rates?
Support ........................................................... 74%
Oppose ........................................................... 13%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%
Q10 Do you support or oppose requiring existing
power plants to cut carbon pollution by up to
30%?
Support ........................................................... 58%
Oppose ........................................................... 23%
Not sure .......................................................... 19%
Q11 Do you support or oppose the fracking bill
recently passed by the legislature?
Support ........................................................... 29%
Oppose ........................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 33%
Q12 What do you think is the best way to fund
raises for North Carolina’s teachers: eliminating
teacher assistants, selling more lottery tickets,
or raising taxes on people who make more
than $250,000 a year?
Eliminating teacher assistants ........................ 12%
Selling more lottery tickets .............................. 19%
Raising taxes on more than $250,000 ............ 55%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%
Q13 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 49%
Someone else / Don't remember .................... 5%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 10%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 17%
Moderate......................................................... 30%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 23%
Very conservative ........................................... 19%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 53%
Man................................................................. 47%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 43%
Republican...................................................... 36%
Independent / Other........................................ 22%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White .............................................................. 75%
African-American ............................................ 20%
Other............................................................... 5%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 15%
30 to 45........................................................... 25%
46 to 65........................................................... 37%
Older than 65.................................................. 23%
Q19 Mode
Phone ............................................................. 80%
Internet ........................................................... 20%
Q20 Area Code
252.................................................................. 10%
336.................................................................. 17%
704.................................................................. 16%
828.................................................................. 13%
910.................................................................. 10%
919.................................................................. 14%
Internet ........................................................... 20%
