Gallup poll finds fertile ground for Republicans in November

As the 2024 presidential election nears, a new Gallup survey out this week suggests that Republicans are entering the 2024 election with favorable conditions. More Americans self-identify as Republicans than any other time in recent history. Those who say they are Republican or lean toward the Republican Party is at 48%, while those who identify as or lean Democratic is 45%.

With only 19% of Americans satisfied with the nation’s direction, this low sentiment historically benefits the opposition party, in this case, the Republicans. Economic dissatisfaction, low public approval of the country’s direction, and voter frustration with leadership provide fertile ground for a GOP advantage.

By 46% to 41% more Americans believe Republicans are better equipped to handle the economy, the top issue in Gallup’s survey (24%). Gallup reports that this particular measure is “highly predictive of election outcomes” dating back to 1948. 

So why then does a more complex picture emerge when Carolina Journal releases our monthly polls? In North Carolina, a critical swing state, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and Republican Donald Trump remains tight. Democrats lead in more Council of State races than earlier this summer, and the generic legislative ballot is tight between Republicans and Democrats.

Trump leads by less than a percentage point, even though Gallup’s national report suggests that voter dissatisfaction with the current White House occupants should strongly favor Republicans. This contradiction suggests that while national sentiment on policy and key election issues may lean towards the GOP, media coverage and pop culture, particularly in swing states like North Carolina, still make the races competitive, up and down the ballot.

Even with social media available in nearly every voter’s pocket, traditional media still has an incredibly important role in our electoral process. A handful of editors and several legacy news outlets determine the front page of daily news, often accused of gatekeeping messages for candidates. The rest of the news industry follows their lead each morning, looking for a new or local angle on the same stories.

The antiquated mainstream news production process has left an information vacuum that is filled by social-media-driven content, sorted into our feeds according to algorithms that factor in our individual interests and activity.

This is why fact-checking Kamala Harris after the debate wasn’t widespread until well after the lights on that Philadelphia stage went dark. Fact-checking flew through internet channels primarily preaching to the choir; those who had already spent debate night shouting at the TV.

The tension between Gallup’s report and what we are seeing in North Carolina polls reveals that while the national mood may favor Republicans, Democrats remain competitive in key battlegrounds because election fatigue may have already kicked in for North Carolinians who are less engaged in politics day-to-day.

Harris’s candidacy, buoyed by support from billionaire celebrities like Taylor Swift and Oprah Winfrey rather than policy proposals, may still resonate with voters in pivotal states. Republican’s effort to push back on the rollout of a New Kamala Harris and remind voters that she is three and a half years into her White House job could fall on deaf ears.

It also makes the 2024 election more unpredictable than Gallup’s broader trends might suggest. Both parties will need to navigate these conflicting signals as the race intensifies.

Election Day is 39 days away. A good percentage of our neighbors may not have decided which box they will check on their ballots. We should all be on our own “listening tours,” taking in what our friends and neighbors believe, along with what they are hearing and experiencing, providing sound, calm counsel with context in policy, not pop media culture.

As they reach a decision over the next few weeks, voters will take their experiences at the grocery checkout, at work, at their child’s school, and cut it with media coverage, campaign ads, and all the crafted messages drowning their day. Most voters are not “engaged” in politics. They are just trying to get through the day, pay their bills, run their businesses, and care for their families. Policies to bring down the national debt, interest rates, and the cost of living should win the day.