Election takeaways

Published November 8, 2013

by Gary Pearce, Talking About Politics, November 7, 2013.

The Republican civil war takes off, Obamacare takes a hit, Virginia is still purple, a big GOP personality wins big in blue New Jersey, public pollsters lose big and a new generation of Democratic leaders rises across North Carolina. Let's run it all down.

GOP civil war: The skirmishes are over, and the real war begins. Christie vs. Cruz in 2016. Tea Party and evangelicals vs. Thom Tillis. Tea Party vs. Pittenger (NC-09). Tea Party vs. the “Washington establishment.” Have at it!

Obamacare: Good luck arguing that Obamacare didn’t hurt Terry McAuliffe in Virginia. Its opponents believe it did and the media suspects it did, so the heat is going to get a lot hotter. Obamacare supporters have claimed that, once it goes into effect, the American public will love it so much they’ll never give it up. We’re still waiting for that to kick in.

Virginia: Democrats are oddly deflated in victory. They thought McAuliffe would win bigger, especially with a $15 million advantage. Maybe Virginia (like North Carolina) is just always going to be close, maybe voters didn’t like either candidate, maybe the Republican establishment abandoned Ken Cuccinelli, maybe it was Obamacare. Still, a win is a win.

Pollsters: Virginia was a surprise because public pollsters had McAuliffe winning big. Public Policy Polling had his margin at 7 points (it was 2.5). Some newspaper polls said he had double-digit leads. Geoff Garin, McAuliffe’s pollster, said his last poll pegged it at 3 points, and he dismissed the idea of a last-minute, weekend shift. Here’s the lesson: Campaigns spend a lot of money making sure polls are right, but public polls don’t have that same incentive. They want maximum publicity at minimum cost. Politicians always ask: “Where can I get a cheap poll?” My answer: “Why don’t you get a good poll instead?”

New Jersey: NC GOP strategist Paul Shumaker noted that this is a case where an outsized (in many ways) personality overcame a state’s political structure. Chris Christie is a force of nature, and he rode another force of nature, Hurricane Sandy, to victory in a Democratic state. But also note that heavy spending by outside groups kept New Jersey’s legislature Democratic. And don’t count on Christie’s win converting the Tea Party. Anybody who hugs Obama and lets gays marry isn’t winning the GOP nomination in 2016.

North Carolina: A remarkable cohort of young Democratic leaders won city and town races across the state Tuesday. In the past, municipal officers haven’t been great launching pads for political careers. But that is changing as North Carolina urbanizes. Cities and towns can be training grounds, testing grounds and proving grounds for new leaders. The party should take note and make room. Click here for a rundown on these races and the rising stars.