Election analysis from NC SPIN panelists

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

From Bob Orr, former Supreme Court Justice and NC SPIN panelist:                                                         The power of gerrymandered districts was  never more evident than in this election cycle.  There were three congressional districts that came close to flipping to the democrats but the lines were sufficiently drawn to keep them in GOP hands - barely.  In the GA, there were a number of lopsided wins for D's and R's showing how packing voters in a district works resulting in many other tight races staying in GOP hands.  And the GA GOP leadership has "successfully" eliminated the GOP majority on the Supreme Court over the last two elections by trying to tilt the scales in favor of GOP incumbents (Edmunds in '16 and Jackson in '18) which backfired with the election of two Democrats (Morgan and Earl).  The numbers this cycle show the partisan edge creeping back toward the Democrats in judicial races.  And finally, the big question is where do the "Never Trump" Republicans go in 2020?  Is there a viable GOP primary challenger to Trump?  Do they look to some long shot, but viable independent or third party candidate?  Or do they swallow hard and hope that the Democrats don't nominate another Hillary, and side with the Democrats?  No easy answers.

From Brad Crone, political and communications consult and also NC SPIN panelist:                                                                                                                   What we are seeing is a hardening of the lines between rural and urban North Carolina. We are seeing a hardening of the partisanship with the Democrats getting bluer and the Republicans getting redder.  Campaign 2018 was a split decision so now Campaign 2020 begins in earnest with Congressional redistricting the first major hurdle coming in 2019.