Don't underestimate Stein's accomplishment
Published February 6, 2025
Josh Stein has officially taken office, beginning a new era less burdened by the history of the Old South. The degeneracy that CNN revealed about Mark Robinson led some observers to believe that Stein’s victory had been inevitable. But this assessment was skewed by the clarity of hindsight. In fact, the new governor’s victory was a significant political accomplishment that was hardly guaranteed.
Many people have forgotten the conventional wisdom that prevailed when Mark Robinson entered the race. The Greensboro demagogue’s liabilities were widely known in political circles, but the bulk of the Raleigh establishment also believed that he possessed considerable strengths. He had the gift of gab and was an overwhelmingly powerful presence on the stump. Significantly, Robinson was extremely popular among Republican base voters, commanding the same hordes of ultra-loyalists who had twice carried Donald Trump to victory in the state. This generous estimation of Robinson’s powers was what led Phil Berger and Tim Moore to cynically endorse the bigot.
Robinson’s potency appeared to be reflected in early polling. The earliest surveys showed Robinson’s leading Stein by margins as large as five points. And this lead emanated directly from the strengths I described above. Specifically, Robinson already enjoyed greater name recognition and popularity because of his celebrity status in Republican circles. For all of Robinson’s egregious rhetoric, the race was clearly a tossup.
I shared this assessment. Other analysts I respect were more confident that Robinson’s extremism would render him unelectable, but their confidence was premature. They were assessing Robinson based upon the experience of failed GOP gubernatorial candidates like Robin Hayes and Dan Forest. But the more accurate analogy would have been to Jim Gardner in 1968, when the young Rocky Mount entrepreneur was nicknamed “Diamond Jim” for his glamour and flash, and who very nearly defeated Democrat Bob Scott in a Republican year.
The parallels to Gardner are indeed striking. Both men emerged to fill a rare political niche. In Gardner’s case, it was a Republican who would co-opt the longstanding racist conservatism of Eastern North Carolina to attract conservative Democrats to the party of Goldwater (whom Gardner had ardently supported). Robinson emerged de novo from Greensboro obscurity, thrilling the increasingly dominant MAGA wing of the Republican Party with his combination of hateful demagoguery and the fact that he happened to be a Black man. With their sparkling charisma, either of these men could have broken through and become the first right-wing Republican to hold the governor’s office.
In short, Robinson began the race in a genuinely strong position. It took a savvy and devastating campaign by Josh Stein to deconstruct the Robinson “bullet train”—and Stein did this by the end of the summer. The right-wing enthusiasm that had driven Robinson’s career was smothered and obliterated. Ol’ Mark’s adventures on Nude Africa ultimately rendered him unelectable, but if this information had remained suppressed, he might well have won an election against the Stein campaign. Stein ensured that that ghastly fate would not befall the Tar Heel State.
Many people have forgotten the conventional wisdom that prevailed when Mark Robinson entered the race. The Greensboro demagogue’s liabilities were widely known in political circles, but the bulk of the Raleigh establishment also believed that he possessed considerable strengths. He had the gift of gab and was an overwhelmingly powerful presence on the stump. Significantly, Robinson was extremely popular among Republican base voters, commanding the same hordes of ultra-loyalists who had twice carried Donald Trump to victory in the state. This generous estimation of Robinson’s powers was what led Phil Berger and Tim Moore to cynically endorse the bigot.
Robinson’s potency appeared to be reflected in early polling. The earliest surveys showed Robinson’s leading Stein by margins as large as five points. And this lead emanated directly from the strengths I described above. Specifically, Robinson already enjoyed greater name recognition and popularity because of his celebrity status in Republican circles. For all of Robinson’s egregious rhetoric, the race was clearly a tossup.
I shared this assessment. Other analysts I respect were more confident that Robinson’s extremism would render him unelectable, but their confidence was premature. They were assessing Robinson based upon the experience of failed GOP gubernatorial candidates like Robin Hayes and Dan Forest. But the more accurate analogy would have been to Jim Gardner in 1968, when the young Rocky Mount entrepreneur was nicknamed “Diamond Jim” for his glamour and flash, and who very nearly defeated Democrat Bob Scott in a Republican year.
The parallels to Gardner are indeed striking. Both men emerged to fill a rare political niche. In Gardner’s case, it was a Republican who would co-opt the longstanding racist conservatism of Eastern North Carolina to attract conservative Democrats to the party of Goldwater (whom Gardner had ardently supported). Robinson emerged de novo from Greensboro obscurity, thrilling the increasingly dominant MAGA wing of the Republican Party with his combination of hateful demagoguery and the fact that he happened to be a Black man. With their sparkling charisma, either of these men could have broken through and become the first right-wing Republican to hold the governor’s office.
In short, Robinson began the race in a genuinely strong position. It took a savvy and devastating campaign by Josh Stein to deconstruct the Robinson “bullet train”—and Stein did this by the end of the summer. The right-wing enthusiasm that had driven Robinson’s career was smothered and obliterated. Ol’ Mark’s adventures on Nude Africa ultimately rendered him unelectable, but if this information had remained suppressed, he might well have won an election against the Stein campaign. Stein ensured that that ghastly fate would not befall the Tar Heel State.
Alexander H. Jones is a Policy Analyst with Carolina Forward. He lives in Carrboro. Have feedback? Reach him at alex@carolinaforward.org.
