Democrats have edge, energy in North Carolina for 2018

PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds that Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot 46-41 for this fall. Among voters who are ‘very excited’ about voting in this year’s election- which could be a low turnout affair with no Senate or Gubernatorial race at the top of the ballot- the Democratic edge expands to 13 points at 53/40.

The strong position for Democrats is a function of voters being happy with their Democratic Governor and unhappy with their Republican President. 49% of voters approve of the job Roy Cooper is doing to 33% who disapprove. Cooper is actually more popular than he was at this time a year ago when he had a 45/34 approval spread. That’s a big contrast with how his two predecessors fared in their first years in office. Pat McCrory had a 37/47 approval rating in January of 2014 and Bev Perdue had a 30/48 approval rating in January of 2010.

“With new maps, a popular Governor, and the energy of the voters on their side Democrats are almost certain to make gains in the legislature this year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The question is just how wide ranging the gains will be.”

Voters are not happy with the General Assembly. Only 19% approve of the job it’s doing to 51% who disapprove. The Democrats in the legislature aren’t popular, with 39% of voters approving of the job they’re doing to 45% who disapprove. But they’re a lot better off than the Republicans who have only a 35% approval rating with 51% of voters disapproving of them. There’s 59/15 support for nonpartisan redistricting with independents (69/12), Democrats (62/12), and Republicans (45/21) all in favor of it.

While North Carolinians are happy with their Governor, they aren’t happy with their President. Only 42% of voters approve of the job Donald Trump is doing, to 50% who disapprove. Voters blame Trump and the Republicans in Congress over the Democrats in Congress 48/43 when it comes to the government shutdown. 64% of voters in the state support DACA to only 25% who oppose it- that includes 82% of Democrats, 61% of independents, and even 43% of Republicans.

The great policy battles of 2017 don’t play out well for Republicans in North Carolina either. Just 37% of voters favor the tax reform plan that was passed last month, to 42% who oppose it. 57% think the primary beneficiary of it will be the wealthy and large corporations to 32% think it will be the middle class and small businesses.

The health care debate that initially sunk Republicans into a difficult position for 2018 nationally plays out particularly badly for them in North Carolina. 50% of voters in the state now support the Affordable Care Act, to 36% who are opposed. By contrast there is only 31% support for the repeal bill(s) the GOP put forward last year, to 48% who are opposed to them. Given the choice, 61% of voters in the state think Congress should keep the Affordable Care Act in place and makes changes to it as necessary, while just 33% would prefer Congress start over with a new health care law.

“Donald Trump and most of what he tried to do in his first year in office are unpopular in North Carolina,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That’s why Democrats are positioned to have their best election in the state since President Obama’s election in 2008.”

North Carolina’s 2 Republican Senators are both unpopular. 31% of voters approve of the job Richard Burr is doing to 43% who disapprove. For Thom Tillis it’s a 28% approval rating with 45% disapproving of him. He was unpopular even when he was elected to office in a lesser of two evils choice for voters in 2014, and nothing in the last 3 years has made him any more popular. His reelection in 2020 is likely to be as much of a top tier race nationally as his initial election in 2014 was.

A lot has changed in North Carolina over the last decade that we’ve been regularly polling the state but there’s one constant: when UNC and Duke play each other in basketball in a couple weeks, 41% of voters will be pulling for the Tar Heels to 31% for the Blue Devils. We’ve never found anything else. There is an interesting political divide with Clinton voters preferring UNC 47/25, while Trump voters prefer Duke 38/35.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 839 registered voters from January 19th to 21st. The margin of error is +/-3.4%. 74% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 26% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PPP_Release_NC_12318.pdf