Democrats get wins but not guarantees of success

by Doug Clark, Off the Record, November 8, 2017.

The outcome of the Virginia governor's race was consistent with the special congressional elections we saw earlier this year.

The Trump effect is a negative for Republicans by 4-5 percentage points, for the moment.

Democrat Hillary Clinton carried Virginia by 5 points last year. Last night, Democrat Ralph Northam won by 9.

Exit polls "revealed an unmistakable anti-Trump backlash Tuesday, as Democrats won resounding victories in governors races in Virginia and New Jersey," Politico reports.

Republicans held congressional seats earlier this year in South Carolina, Georgia, Kansas and Wyoming, but by smaller margins than expected.

If this pattern continues into 2018, it still might not help North Carolina Democrats enough to pick up many congressional or state legislative seats.

Last year, there were no congressional races and few legislative ones where a five-point flip would turn the seat from Republicans to Democrats.

But you never know.

Much more surprising in Virginia yesterday was Democrats' success in the House of Delegates, where a 32-seat Republican advantage appears to have been erased.

In Prince William County, a transgender Democrat ousted Virginia's most outspoken social conservative.

If that could happen, could North Carolina Democrats at least cut into huge Republican majorities in our state House and Senate?

Part of the answer depends on the redistricting case now before a federal court.

Two Guilford County districts — one House, one Senate — almost certainly will be redrawn in a way that will benefit Democrats, since adjoining districts also will have to be adjusted. It is only through outrageous partisan gerrymandering that blue Guilford County can have so many Republican legislators.

Republicans should worry, especially when they look at the outcome in Greensboro's District 5 City Council race.

http://www.greensboro.com/townnews/politics/democrats-get-wins-but-not-guarantees-of-more-success/article_dd3b01b6-c490-11e7-b538-a7c33c872710.html