Democratic primary deja vu?
Published August 14, 2015
by John Wynne, Politics NC, August 13, 2015.
A couple weeks ago, Democrats were having difficulty landing just one candidate to go up against Richard Burr. Now, they might have multiple. No one’s officially declared yet, but several folks have made it clear they’re leaning toward running.
That’s both good and bad news for Democrats. The good news is that they’ll have a choice and will be able to choose the candidate they think is strongest. The bad news is what a competitive primary might mean in terms of depleting already scarce resources. That’s exactly what happened to Democrats in 2010 and they paid a heavy price.
Of the candidates, Heath Shuler appears to be the top choice of the Democratic establishment in Washington. Insiders say odds are “slightly worse than 50-50? that he’ll run. If Shuler jumps in, liberals are likely to put up a fight. Right now their standard bearer would probably be former State Rep. Deborah Ross, who was a progressive champion in the House. It’s rumored that Ross has told the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee that she’s in.
Then there’s Rep. Duane Hall, who like Ross is from Wake County. Hall says he’s not 100% in but is “leaning strongly toward” running. He says that people tried to recruit him so that he could capture the “middle vote” against Burr. He would probably compete with Ross for the liberal vote in the primary.
The most interesting unknown quantity is Chris Rey. There are already two entrants in the Lieutenant Governor contest – Linda Coleman and Holly Jones. If Rey enters the Senate race instead, he could shake up the race by capturing most of the black vote. And of course, the more entrants you have, the more likely it is that a runoff will occur. (Runoffs, of course, are not automatic. The second place finisher has to ask for one and that might be a smart idea if Democrats are already hurting for money.)
In the meantime, most pundits think Richard Burr is favored for a second term. The National Journal ranks the North Carolina Senate seat held by Burr as the #8 most likely to switch parties.
