Civitas Poll shows voter preferences 1 week before election
Published March 10, 2016
By Demi Dowdy, Civitas Institute, March 10, 2016.
A new Civitas Poll provides the most recent insights into what North Carolina voters are thinking leading up to the March 15 primary.
The live-caller poll asked 500 Democrats and 500 Republicans separately who their choice was for president. Voters were also asked about the gubernatorial and U.S. candidates, the NC bond, and all contested statewide races.
Our survey of 500 likely Democrat North Carolina primary voters has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.38 percent. The survey was taken March 3, 5-7, 2016.
Our survey of 500 likely Republican North Carolina primary voters has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.38 percent. The survey was taken March 5-7, 2016.
For Republican primary voters
Actual text of the political primary questions, in the order in which they were asked:
If the Republican Primary for President were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between? (READ IN ORDER)
1/16 1/19 3/7
3% 2% 2% Mike Huckabee
2% 2% 11% John R. Kasich
2% 2% 1% Rand Paul
11% 10% 11% Marco Rubio
— 1% — Rick Santorum
25% 27% 32% Donald J. Trump
3% 4% 2% Jeb Bush
9% 7% 3% Ben Carson
4% 4% — Chris Christie
22% 23% 26% Ted Cruz
2% 2% — Carly Fiorina
— — — Jim Gilmore
15% 11% 6% Or would you say you have No Preference
— 2% 1% Other (Specify)
1% 2% 5% Refused
(IF the response to the above question was Huckabee, Paul, Santorum, Bush, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Gilmore; respondents were then asked:)
As you may know, [the candidate named in the previous question] has dropped out of the presidential race. Out of the following candidates who are still running in the Republican Primary for President, for whom would you vote between: (RANDOMIZE)
19% John Kasich
12% Marco Rubio
14% Donald Trump
28% Ted Cruz
24% Don’t Know/ Unsure
2% Refused
(ASK ALL)
And of the following, who is best described by the phrase: “Cares about people like me.” (RANDOMIZE)
18% John Kasich
13% Marco Rubio
25% Donald Trump
29% Ted Cruz
13% Don’t Know/ Unsure
1% Other (Specify)
1% Refused
If the Republican Primary Election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER)
1/19 3/7
1% 3% Total Holmquist
3% 2% Total Wright
7% 14% Total Brannon
45% 42% Total Burr
42% 39% Total Lean/ Undecided
1% 2% DEFINITELY HOLMQUIST
— 1% PROBABLY HOLMQUIST
1% 1% LEAN HOLMQUIST
2% 1% DEFINITELY WRIGHT
1% 1% PROBABLY WRIGHT
— — LEAN WRIGHT
5% 10% DEFINITELY BRANNON
2% 4% PROBABLY BRANNON
— 1% LEAN BRANNON
26% 29% DEFINITELY BURR
19% 13% PROBABLY BURR
4% 2% LEAN BURR
38% 35% HARD UNDECIDED
— — NAMED OTHER
1% 1% REFUSED
If the Republican Primary Election for North Carolina Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER)
1/16 3/7
63% 65% Total McCrory
3% Total Moss
8% 6% Total Brawley
28% 25% Total Lean/ Undecided
49% 49% DEFINITELY MCCRORY
14% 16% PROBABLY MCCRORY
2% 3% LEAN MCCRORY
1% DEFINITELY MOSS
2% PROBABLY MOSS
1% LEAN MOSS
4% 4% DEFINITELY BRAWLEY
4% 2% PROBABLY BRAWLEY
3% — LEAN BRAWLEY
23% 22% HARD UNDECIDED
— — NAMED OTHER
1% 1% REFUSED
If the Republican Primary Election for Secretary of State were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Michael LaPaglia or A. J. Daoud?
1/16 3/7
6% 12% Total LaPaglia
7% 12% Total Daoud
85% 70% Total Lean/ Undecided
3% 6% Definitely LaPaglia
3% 6% Probably LaPaglia
1% 1% Lean LaPaglia
81% 66% Undecided
3% 3% Lean Daoud
4% 6% Probably Daoud
3% 6% Definitely Daoud
2% 5% Refused
If the Republican Primary Election for Attorney General were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Buck Newton or Jim O’Neill?
1/16 3/7
5% 22% Total Newton
16% 21% Total O’Neill
77% 54% Total Lean/ Undecided
3% 13% Definitely Newton
2% 8% Probably Newton
1% 2% Lean Newton
72% 49% Undecided
3% 2% Lean O’Neill
7% 12% Probably O’Neill
9% 9% Definitely O’Neill
1% 4% Refused
If the Republican Primary Election for Superintendent of Public Instruction were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER)
1/16 3/7
11% 16% Total Johnson
2% Total Sills
7% 11% Total Stein
80% 66% Total Lean/ Undecided
7% 9% DEFINITELY JOHNSON
5% 7% PROBABLY JOHNSON
2% 1% LEAN JOHNSON
1% DEFINITELY SILLS
1% PROBABLY SILLS
— LEAN SILLS
5% 7% DEFINITELY STEIN
2% 5% PROBABLY STEIN
2% 2% LEAN STEIN
76% 63% HARD UNDECIDED
— — NAMED OTHER
1% 4% REFUSED
If the Republican Primary Election for Commissioner of Insurance were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER)
1/16 3/7
— 10% Total McLaughlin
6% 6% Total Pierce
10% 10% Total Causey
84% 70% Total Lean/ Undecided
6% DEFINITELY MCLAUGHLIN
4% PROBABLY MCLAUGHLIN
1% LEAN MCLAUGHLIN
5% 1% DEFINITELY PIERCE
2% 5% PROBABLY PIERCE
2% — LEAN PIERCE
6% 7% DEFINITELY CAUSEY
4% 3% PROBABLY CAUSEY
1% 1% LEAN CAUSEY
80% 67% HARD UNDECIDED
— 1% NAMED OTHER
— 4% REFUSED
If the Republican Primary Election for Commissioner of Agriculture were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Andy Stevens or Steve Troxler?
13% Total Stevens
34% Total Troxler
48% Total Lean/Undecided
6% Definitely Stevens
7% Probably Stevens
1% Lean Stevens
44% Undecided
3% Lean Troxler
12% Probably Troxler
22% Definitely Troxler
5% Refused
Please tell me if you would vote FOR or AGAINST the “Connect NC Public Improvement Bond,” which will be on the ballot this March and reads: “The issuance of two billion dollars State of North Carolina Public Improvement Bonds constituting general obligation bonds of the State secured by a pledge of the faith and credit and taxing power of the State for the purpose of providing funds, with any other available funds, to fund capital improvements and new facilities for the State, including, without limitation, the construction and furnishing of new facilities and the renovation and rehabilitation of existing facilities for, without limitation, the University of North Carolina System, the North Carolina Community College System, water and sewer systems, the State’s National Guard, the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, attractions and parks, and the Department of Public Safety.”
1/16 3/7
42% 49% For
35% 33% Against
23% 17% Don’t Know/ Need more Information
— 1% Refused
And thinking about the November General Election for one moment…
Of the following candidates in the Democrat Presidential Primary field – which candidate could you see yourself possibly voting for in November: (ROTATE)
22% Bernie Sanders
11% Hillary Clinton
62% None/Don’t Know
5% Refused
Crosstabs for Republican voters can be viewed here. (Crosstabs for Democrats are below.)
For Democratic primary voters
Actual text of the political primary questions, in the order in which they were asked:
If the Democratic Primary for President were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between? (READ IN ORDER)
1/16 3/7
2% 1% Martin O’Malley
28% 28% Bernie Sanders
53% 57% Hillary Clinton
— — Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente
15% 8% Or would you say you have No Preference
1% 2% Someone else (Specify)
— 3% Refused
(IF ANSWER TO ABOVE IS O’MALLEY, ASK)
As you may know, [Martin O’Malley] has dropped out of the presidential race. Out of the following candidates who are still running in the Democratic Primary for President, for whom would you vote between: (RANDOMIZE)
25% Bernie Sanders
31% Hillary Clinton
— Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente
43% Don’t Know/ Unsure
— Refused
(ASK ALL)
And of the following, who is best described by the phrase: “Cares about people like me.” (RANDOMIZE)
31% Bernie Sanders
47% Hillary Clinton
1% Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente
17% Don’t Know/ Unsure
1% Other (Specify)
4% Refused
If the Democratic Primary Election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote between:
1/16 3/7
— 2% Total Reeves
3% 2% Total Rey
13% 23% Total Ross
6% 7% Total Griffin
70% 62% Total Lean/ Undecided
1% DEFINITELY REEVES
1% PROBABLY REEVES
1% LEAN REEVES
1% 2% DEFINITELY REY
2% — PROBABLY REY
— — LEAN REY
8% 17% DEFINITELY ROSS
5% 5% PROBABLY ROSS
1% 2% LEAN ROSS
3% 3% DEFINITELY GRIFFIN
3% 4% PROBABLY GRIFFIN
1% 1% LEAN GRIFFIN
68% 58% HARD UNDECIDED
2% — NAMED OTHER
5% 4% REFUSED
If the Democratic Primary Election for North Carolina Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Ken Spaulding or Roy Cooper?
1/16 3/7
11% 12% Total Spaulding
48% 52% Total Cooper
38% 34% Total Lean/ Undecided
6% 7% Definitely Spaulding
4% 5% Probably Spaulding
2% 1% Lean Spaulding
32% 29% Undecided
4% 5% Lean Cooper
15% 14% Probably Cooper
32% 38% Definitely Cooper
3% 2% Refused
If the Democratic Primary Election for Lieutenant Governor were held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER)
1/16 3/7
7% 8% Total Jones
3% 2% Total Newton
4% 2% Total Wilson
15% 23% Total Coleman
65% 60% Total Lean/ Undecided
3% 5% DEFINITELY JONES
4% 3% PROBABLY JONES
1% 1% LEAN JONES
1% 1% DEFINITELY NEWTON
1% 1% PROBABLY NEWTON
— — LEAN NEWTON
1% 1% DEFINITELY WILSON
3% 1% PROBABLY WILSON
— — LEAN WILSON
9% 16% DEFINITELY COLEMAN
6% 7% PROBABLY COLEMAN
2% 3% LEAN COLEMAN
61% 55% HARD UNDECIDED
2% — NAMED OTHER
4% 5% REFUSED
If the Democratic Primary Election for Attorney General were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Josh Stein or Marcus W. Williams?
17% Total Stein
20% Total Williams
59% Total Lean/Undecided
12% Definitely Stein
4% Probably Stein
2% Lean Stein
54% Undecided
3% Lean Williams
7% Probably Williams
13% Definitely Williams
4% Refused
If the Democratic Primary Election for Treasurer were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Dan Blue III or Ron Elmer?
1/16 3/7
20% 29% Total Blue III
10% 15% Total Elmer
64% 52% Total Lean/ Undecided
13% 20% Definitely Blue III
7% 9% Probably Blue III
3% 3% Lean Blue III
60% 48% Undecided
1% 2% Lean Elmer
5% 5% Probably Elmer
5% 10% Definitely Elmer
6% 4% Refused
If the Democratic Primary Election for Superintendent of Public Instruction were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Henry J. Pankey or June Atkinson?
1/16 3/7
7% 7% Total Pankey
33% 37% Total Atkinson
55% 52% Total Lean/ Undecided
4% 5% Definitely Pankey
3% 2% Probably Pankey
— 1% Lean Pankey
51% 47% Undecided
4% 5% Lean Atkinson
12% 11% Probably Atkinson
21% 26% Definitely Atkinson
4% 4% Refused
If the Democratic Primary Election for Labor Commissioner were being held today, for whom would you vote between: (READ IN ORDER) Charles Meeker or Mazie Ferguson?
21% Total Meeker
15% Total Ferguson
60% Total Lean/ Undecided
17% Definitely Meeker
4% Probably Meeker
3% Lean Meeker
55% Undecided
3% Lean Ferguson
6% Probably Ferguson
9% Definitely Ferguson
4% Refused
Please tell me if you would vote FOR or AGAINST the “Connect NC Public Improvement Bond,” which will be on the ballot this March and reads: “The issuance of two billion dollars State of North Carolina Public Improvement Bonds constituting general obligation bonds of the State secured by a pledge of the faith and credit and taxing power of the State for the purpose of providing funds, with any other available funds, to fund capital improvements and new facilities for the State, including, without limitation, the construction and furnishing of new facilities and the renovation and rehabilitation of existing facilities for, without limitation, the University of North Carolina System, the North Carolina Community College System, water and sewer systems, the State’s National Guard, the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, attractions and parks, and the Department of Public Safety.”
1/16 3/7
66% 69% For
14% 18% Against
19% 12% Don’t Know/ Need more Information
1% — Refused
And thinking about the November General Election for one moment…
Of the following candidates in the Republican Presidential Primary field – which candidate could you see yourself possibly voting for in November: (RANDOMIZE)
24% John Kasich
13% Marco Rubio
8% Donald Trump
8% Ted Cruz
47% None/ Don’t Know
— Refused
Crosstabs for Democratic voters can be viewed here. (Crosstabs for Republicans are above.)
https://www.nccivitas.org/2016/17366/
