Can NC Republicans win Governors' races anymore
Published December 26, 2024
As of 2020, the national Republican Party had only won the popular vote in one of the previous eight presidential elections. The political class believed that this failure represented a serious indictment of the GOP, even though Republican presidents had held the White House for 12 years in this period. But North Carolina Republicans have suffered a far greater failure. They have only held the state’s top executive office for four years since 1992. They may have built a party that simply cannot win governors’ races.
The main dynamic in the last 50 years of North Carolina politics has been the rise of the Republican Party. Democrats carried the state in every presidential election from 1876 to 1964, with one exception taking place in 1928 when the party nominated a Catholic for president and this Bible Belt state proved too bigoted to vote for “Romanism.” In 1976, only one—one—Republican sat in the North Carolina Senate. Although the state had a stronger local Republican Party than most other states in the South, N.C. was a one-party state with Democratic hegemony secured by the disenfranchisement of Black voters.
Right-wing Republicans began to challenge this monopoly in the 1960s. The Civil Rights movement provided them with an opportunity. Just one year after the passage of the Voting Rights Act, an aggressive right-wing businessman named Jim Gardner toppled the Chairman of the US House Agriculture Committee en route to winning a congressional seat in Eastern North Carolina. Gardner returned to the well in 1968, running a close second to Democrat Bob Scott in the governor’s race. “Diamond Jim,” as he was called, was shameless in his use of the race card. “I don’t disagree with him about anything he says,” Gardner said of segregationist presidential candidate George Wallace. Republicans would grow from there.
But notably, Gardner lost the gubernatorial race. While Republicans built momentum decade by decade on the strength of racial resentment, the Democrats would remain dominant in governors’ races. Ironically, the main reason for their failure was that they tried unsuccessfully to apply their formula of success. Republicans nominated Gardner- (and Jesse Helms-) style conservatives for the governorship in upwards of half a dozen elections, losing every time. They proved heedless of the fact that North Carolina’s political preferences had not changed dramatically. The state still favored right-wingers in federal races and moderates in governors’ races. The change that had taken place was in the state’s partisan preferences: As the Democrats embraced civil rights, white North Carolinians began voting for right-wing Republicans instead of right-wing segregationist Democrats.
A further irony emerged when Republicans began moderating their candidates for US Senate. Savvy political strategists like Karl Rove and North Carolina’s Paul Shumaker saw that the state was began more moderate and suburban. In response to John Edwards’s victory in 1998, Rove recruited Elizabeth Dole to run for Helms’s old Senate seat, and she won suburban Wake County by 10 points. Richard Burr and Thom Tillis were in her mold. But despite the party’s dominant performance with more-reasonable-seeming senate candidates, Republicans continued to nominate right-wing gubernatorial hopefuls in the 21st century. Richard Vinroot, Dan Forest, and Mark Robinson all went down to solid defeats.
The logical next step would be to run a different style of candidate. But Republicans may have created a situation in which it will be impossible for them to embrace pragmatic politicians in governors’ races. The GOP was a moderate, business-oriented party prior to the Civil Rights revolution. But they exchanged that pragmatism for a right-wing zeal starting with Gardner and proceeding through Helms, John East, and other hard-right politicians. The GOP - or, more accurately these days, MAGA - has a base heavy on evangelicals, know-nothings and not a few racists clustered in very conservative counties who only want to support candidates like Robinson, who just lost by 15 points. “Diamond Jim” may have doomed them to absentee status in the governor’s mansion.
The main dynamic in the last 50 years of North Carolina politics has been the rise of the Republican Party. Democrats carried the state in every presidential election from 1876 to 1964, with one exception taking place in 1928 when the party nominated a Catholic for president and this Bible Belt state proved too bigoted to vote for “Romanism.” In 1976, only one—one—Republican sat in the North Carolina Senate. Although the state had a stronger local Republican Party than most other states in the South, N.C. was a one-party state with Democratic hegemony secured by the disenfranchisement of Black voters.
Right-wing Republicans began to challenge this monopoly in the 1960s. The Civil Rights movement provided them with an opportunity. Just one year after the passage of the Voting Rights Act, an aggressive right-wing businessman named Jim Gardner toppled the Chairman of the US House Agriculture Committee en route to winning a congressional seat in Eastern North Carolina. Gardner returned to the well in 1968, running a close second to Democrat Bob Scott in the governor’s race. “Diamond Jim,” as he was called, was shameless in his use of the race card. “I don’t disagree with him about anything he says,” Gardner said of segregationist presidential candidate George Wallace. Republicans would grow from there.
But notably, Gardner lost the gubernatorial race. While Republicans built momentum decade by decade on the strength of racial resentment, the Democrats would remain dominant in governors’ races. Ironically, the main reason for their failure was that they tried unsuccessfully to apply their formula of success. Republicans nominated Gardner- (and Jesse Helms-) style conservatives for the governorship in upwards of half a dozen elections, losing every time. They proved heedless of the fact that North Carolina’s political preferences had not changed dramatically. The state still favored right-wingers in federal races and moderates in governors’ races. The change that had taken place was in the state’s partisan preferences: As the Democrats embraced civil rights, white North Carolinians began voting for right-wing Republicans instead of right-wing segregationist Democrats.
A further irony emerged when Republicans began moderating their candidates for US Senate. Savvy political strategists like Karl Rove and North Carolina’s Paul Shumaker saw that the state was began more moderate and suburban. In response to John Edwards’s victory in 1998, Rove recruited Elizabeth Dole to run for Helms’s old Senate seat, and she won suburban Wake County by 10 points. Richard Burr and Thom Tillis were in her mold. But despite the party’s dominant performance with more-reasonable-seeming senate candidates, Republicans continued to nominate right-wing gubernatorial hopefuls in the 21st century. Richard Vinroot, Dan Forest, and Mark Robinson all went down to solid defeats.
The logical next step would be to run a different style of candidate. But Republicans may have created a situation in which it will be impossible for them to embrace pragmatic politicians in governors’ races. The GOP was a moderate, business-oriented party prior to the Civil Rights revolution. But they exchanged that pragmatism for a right-wing zeal starting with Gardner and proceeding through Helms, John East, and other hard-right politicians. The GOP - or, more accurately these days, MAGA - has a base heavy on evangelicals, know-nothings and not a few racists clustered in very conservative counties who only want to support candidates like Robinson, who just lost by 15 points. “Diamond Jim” may have doomed them to absentee status in the governor’s mansion.
Alexander H. Jones is a Policy Analyst with Carolina Forward. He lives in Carrboro. Have feedback? Reach him at alex@carolinaforward.org.
